Australian Open men's singles winner predictions, odds & tennis betting tips

Tennis tips, best bets and player analysis for the Australian Open men's singles at Melbourne Park.

Where to watch

Live on Eurosport 1 & 2 from midnight on Sunday

Best bets

Novak Djokovic
5pts 5-6 general

Casper Ruud to win fourth quarter
2pts 9-2bet365, BoyleSports

Sebastian Korda to win first quarter
1pt 15-2 bet365

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Preview

Rafael Nadal hasn't really got over fighting back from two sets down against final foe Daniil Medvedev to win his second Australian Open singles crown last season.

But while the Spaniard, winner of 22 Grand Slam singles titles, is one of the greatest players and battlers in tennis history, the veteran has been handed an ultra-tough draw at Melbourne Park one year on and any hopes of retaining the crown look a pipedream.

Nadal has what could be a tough draw in each and every round, but the principal reason why the defending champion and top seed is 17-1 for a repeat is the return of Novak Djokovic, who will be chasing a tenth singles triumph in the season's opening major.

Djokovic, who trails Nadal by just one Slam singles victory on 21 wins, has been given the green light to play in this year's Australian Open following his 11th-hour ban from competing in last season's tournament.

Adrian Humphries' verdict

Novak Djokovic 5-6

The oddsmakers are quoting Djokovic at odds-on for a tenth Melbourne Park singles triumph, but there's quite a strong case for believing the former world number one should be a good deal shorter.

The player who took fast-court tennis to a new level after the exploits of Roger Federer and Nadal was seen at his best at major level in just two of the four Slams - the Australian Open and Wimbledon.

But while Djokovic has been clearly the best and difficult to stop on the London grass, he has quite simply been unplayable on the hard courts down under. And now he's back at his favourite venue - and with plenty of fire in his belly after some unsatisfactory scenes in Australia last year. Scenes of his own making, true, but tennis was the biggest loser as full-time politicians ultimately held sway over the sport's part-time politicians.

Back to the action and following his victory in the first of the Adelaide prep tournaments, Djokovic, who looks muscle-bound and fit as a fiddle, should be spot-on for his competitive Melbourne Park return.

He showed his superiority in his 2021 Aussie Open final 7-5 6-2 6-2 mauling of Medvedev and neither the Russian nor Nadal should bother Djokovic should he end up meeting either player in this year's final.

If there are dangers to the title favourite, they are likely to be age - he is 35 - and the best younger players in the game. Nick Kyrgios looks the only potential danger in Djokovic's half of the draw, but with a view to the final we're perhaps looking at Felix Auger-Aliassime or Jannik Sinner, who is now being coached by Darren Cahill, possibly causing most trouble.

That pair could meet in the quarter-finals so only one could have a crack at Djokovic, although neither is certain to even make the title match. Plus don't forget that Djokovic has already given a decent beating to Sebastian Korda in the Adelaide 1 final and Korda is roughly on a par with Auger-Aliassime and Sinner in terms of potential.

Next best bet

Casper Ruud to win fourth quarter 9-2

Djokovic should find a way past Kyrgios, his victim in last year's Wimbledon final, and that could set up a semi-final clash with Casper Ruud.

The oddsmakers reckon Indian Wells champion Taylor Fritz is more likely to win the fourth quarter than Ruud but the Californian, while destined for big and better things, is also one of the most laid-back of professionals who takes his opportunities when they're given to him rather than going out and getting them.

Fritz could make the last four but at the prices second seed Ruud, who maximises his tilts at bigger tournaments and doesn't always care 100 per cent for the smaller ones, looks the bet.

The Norwegian looks set to continue making the business end of events and another may come in the next fortnight.

Other selection

Sebastian Korda to win first quarter 15-2

Medvedev is 5-4 to win the first quarter while Nadal, his final conqueror down under last year, is 7-2, but preference is for third-favourite Korda to surprise the bigger names in the section.

Even though he may still find a way to win his first three matches, Nadal could still be seriously vulnerable from the fourth round onwards, while Medvedev is no certainty to defeat Korda should they meet in the third round.

Korda opens with a potentially trappy outing against former top-20 player Cristian Garin, but if the American ends up meeting Medvedev he has definite upset potential, particularly after taking a set off the more experienced Muscovite in their Paris Masters indoors clash in late 2021, when conditions would have suited the elder player more.

Players to note

Borna Coric
The Croat has had plenty of problems with injuries in recent seasons, but he's a high-class performer at his best - witness his Cincinnati Masters triumph last summer - and one who has a chance to make his mark down under.

Nick Kyrgios
If you don't fancy Djokovic in the bottom half of the draw, you've surely got to be looking out for Kyrgios. A sublime talent who started to take his day job a bit more seriously last season, the Canberra native said recently that he'd probably pack in the tennis if he won just one Slam. The homeland ace is the chief threat to Djokovic in their half.

Alexei Popyrin
Underrated performer who could become Australia's top player when Kyrgios calls time. Could face Fritz in second singles outing and may trouble the American too.

Andy Murray
British legend says he's finally playing pain-free and the Scot could still cause opponents problems. Matteo Berrettini is a tough opening draw, though, but watch his price plummet if he finds a way to upset the Italian 13th seed.

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