ATP Monte Carlo Masters tournament preview and best bets

Starts 10am Sunday

Rafael Nadal is a hot favourite to win a 12th Monte Carlo Masters singles crown this week, but while the Spaniard has been handed a tough-looking early draw in the principality there are still not many to touch him on his beloved clay.

The fact that oddsmakers are prepared to lay prices around even-money about the Majorcan tells you that they reckon age may soon hinder Nadal, who turns 33 in June.

The Pearl of Manacor could not have a much tougher opener than a clash with fit-as-a-fiddle compatriot Roberto Bautista Agut, who is likely to defeat John Millman in round one.

But while RBA and 15th seed Denis Shapovalov, whom Nadal could meet in round three, mean the favourite is going to have to be on top of game from the outset, the world number two looks as if he might get a bit of a breather should he progress to the quarter-finals.

There's another positive as regards Nadal's chances of starring on the slow courts again this year. Despite a whole host of reported injury problems (abdomen, ankle, finger, knee), he was actually playing well at the start of the campaign and that could be a big pointer as he opens his European clay campaign.

His biggest test could possibly come in the semi-finals against hugely impressive youngster Felix Auger-Aliassime, who looks a natural on all surfaces.

Tournament organisers have done well by granting Auger-Aliassime a wildcard entry this week because the 18-year-old Canadian is the most exciting prospect in tennis right now.

Even though FAA performed with huge promise on clay on the Latin American Golden Swing in February, when he made the final in Rio de Janeiro, he went on to even better things on hard courts when coming through qualifying to reach the Miami Open semi-finals last month.

Because of that, there's no great desire to stake highly on him back on clay. The bookmakers know how good he is yet only a couple of firms quote him at three-figure odds which is not exactly giving things away with Nadal in his half of the draw.

Oddsmakers may well issue quarters betting when the outright market settles and, should that happen, punters could definitely consider a lumpier bet on Auger-Aliassime to reach the semis.

World number one Novak Djokovic tops the bill but he makes little appeal on a surface which has traditionally been his weakest. Politics and his role in Chris Kermode's ousting as ATP chairman later this year seemed to play a part in his early exits in Indian Wells and Miami.

A rest could have done Djokovic good, but there are enough competent performers in the top half of the draw – Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, Daniil Medvedev to name but four – to deter Serb backers.

Recommendations
R Nadal
3pts Evs bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes
F Auger-Aliassime
0.5pt each-way 100-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport