South Africa v Wales predictions and rugby union tips: Big Boks victory unlikely

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for South Africa v Wales on Saturday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Action, 4.05pm Saturday

Best bet

Wales +12
3pts Evs bet365

Match preview

Seven days ago Wales were massive underdogs against South Africa and were beaten by a last-gasp penalty, going down 32-29 having led for most of the match.

South Africa were 20-point handicap favourites for that match. The line was cut to 15 after last week’s three-point defeat and has been pushed down further to 12 after the Springboks changed almost their entire starting line-up. But the line still looks too big.

It’s fair to say that Wales cashed in early on against the Boks last week, grabbing two opportunist tries as the hosts were slow to get into gear. But it’s hard to see how an all-new team will suddenly be quicker into their stride than last week’s line-up were.

And Wales, with a game under their belts and all the continuity on their side, have a huge motivation to get on top after last week’s narrow miss.

The Welsh showed they can live with the Springboks physically and they unsettled their opponents well. It looks unlikely that South Africa will deviate much from their defensive power game and with a six-two split on the bench they will look to their forwards again.

One year ago a similarly untried and untested South Africa A team were pitted against the British & Irish Lions and pulled off a famous win. They did it by putting defence first and squeezing the life out of the game, edging a low-scoring contest 17-13, and that same blueprint looks set to be followed.

In the midfield Harlequins' Andre Esterhuizen is a powerful presence but Wales look to have the more dynamic attacking threats in Liam Williams, George North and the two-try hero from the first Test Louis Rees-Zammit.

Last week's narrow defeat for Wales means that just one of the last ten meetings between the nations has been settled by a double-figure margin - and that was a 27-13 Cardiff victory for Wales.

That run includes only one game on South African soil but also covers a Rugby World Cup quarter-final and semi-final and the signs point to another close contest.

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