Resurgent Boks look value to claim narrow win over Wales

BBC2 & S4C, 5.20pm Saturday

While Ireland and New Zealand have stolen the headlines in 2018, two sides who have been quietly improving and building now go head to head in an intriguing clash at the Principality Stadium.

Wales have won their last eight matches, including a first victory since 2009 over nemesis Australia, and stand on the brink of a historic first autumn clean sweep.

South Africa, meanwhile, have shown no let-up as head coach Rassie Erasmus, who took over in the summer, seems intent on taking every opportunity in the short time he has before next year’s World Cup.

It’s been an inconsistent year for the Boks but their last six matches have featured four victories, including a famous success in New Zealand, while their two defeats came by two points at home to the All Blacks and by one point to England at Twickenham.

The last two weekends have brought wins over France and Scotland, both of whom have been making big strides this year, and the success at Murrayfield was particularly eye-catching as they not only showed their trademark physical dominance up front, but contained and matched the Scots’ high-tempo running tactics, and that kind of all-court game should stand them in good stead against the Welsh.

Erasmus has the luxury of naming an unchanged run-on side while powerhouse lock Eben Etzebeth is back on the bench after an injury layoff.

Wales are a side who thrive on confidence and that should not be lacking after their run of results as they run out under the roof to be roared on by the passionate Principality crowd.

They have shown great mental strength in overcoming a record of losing starts in the autumn and finally nailing their Wallaby hoodoo. But that fortitude will be severely tested if the Springboks can get up and at them from the off, and the pressure of aiming for four wins out of four may be a distraction.

Wales have won the last three meetings, but the last two - in the USA in the summer and this time last year in Cardiff - were by a two-point margin, and as the bookmakers’ quotes suggest, this looks set to be every bit as tight.

South Africa are slight outsiders and look the pick, but the value call has to be on a narrow victory.

Recommendation
South Africa to win by one to 12 points
1pt 21-10 Betfair, Hills

Read every day for no-nonsense previews and expert sports betting tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport