Exeter v Saracens: Premiership final betting preview, TV details & tipping

TV: BT Sport 1, 3pm Saturday

After 23 hard-fought rounds the Premiership has the final it deserves between the teams who have proved a cut above the rest.

Exeter finished above Sarries in the standings but with only one win more and Saracens are renowned for timing their run to hit an absolute peak in these crucial weeks.

They had too much for the Chiefs in last year's final, recording a convincing 27-10 victory, and the reigning English and newly-crowned European champions are 2-5 to retain their trophy.

Given their big-finals nous, Sarries are rightly favourites but the price looks short and a seven-point handicap looks generous to an Exeter side who have enough power and defensive strength to make this a close contest.

The Chiefs are appearing in their fourth consecutive final but they have yet to win any of them in 80 minutes. Saracens yet again demonstrated the utterly ruthless control they are able to exert in big games when coming back from 10-0 down to overcome Leinster in the Champions Cup final.

Sarries also won last month's meeting between the teams although it would be unwise to read too much into that as Exeter had already sealed a home semi-final and were rotating their squad. The Chiefs also convincingly won the reverse fixture just before Christmas.

To triumph at Twickenham Exeter will have to get the better of the strongest defence in the Premiership. Sarries have shipped two tries a match and given up just two try-bonus points.

But the Chiefs have the weapons to confront Saracens head-on, mostly centred on their pack.

The Exeter pack won the game when they edged Saracens in the semi-finals two years ago. Trailing and pinned in their own half with minutes to go, Exeter won a scrum penalty, kicked for the corner and let their line-out drive do the work of scoring the winning try.

Three Saracens forwards have managed three tries apiece this season, but six of the Exeter forwards in the squad for the final have scored at least three, headed by Matt Kvesic on eight, while the Chiefs have also been awarded four penalty tries.

There is also flair in the Exeter backline, where Jack Nowell starts at full-back, but it would be no surprise to see their efforts concentrated in the pack, especially with first-choice Sarries props Mako Vunipola and Titi Lamositele out injured.

These rivals led the way all season in attacking and defensive stats - no other team scored more than 600 or conceded fewer than 500 points - and defence so often holds the key in finals. The total tries line has been set at 4.5, which looks high, and it could also pay to bank on the first try being scored by a forward.

And a close-fought, low-scoring contest makes the likelihood of a winning margin of no more than a single score.

Recomendations
Exeter +7.5
2pts 10-11 RedZone
Under 4.5 tries
3pts Evs general
Forward to score first try
1pt 2-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

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