New Zealand v Ireland predictions and rugby union tips: Pressure on All Blacks

Free rugby union tips, best bets and analysis for Saturday's third Test between New Zealand and Ireland at Sky Stadium, Wellington.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event & Action, 8.05am Saturday

Best bet

Ireland +10.5
2pts 8-11 bet365

Match preview

New Zealand rugby is still reeling after the All Blacks' comprehensive defeat to Ireland in the second Test in what’s been branded the ‘Disaster in Dunedin’ and there could be more tough questions to answer following Saturday’s series decider.

Ireland made a mockery of the 15-point handicap last weekend to level the Test series as they recorded their fourth win over the All Blacks in the last seven meetings and first-ever victory on New Zealand soil.

The 23-12 loss was New Zealand’s heaviest home defeat in 29 years and saw them fall to an all-time low of fourth in the world rankings, heaping further pressure on embattled head coach Ian Foster, who is the first All Blacks coach in the professional era to have a win percentage below 70 per cent.

New Zealand were sloppy and ill-disciplined in Dunedin, so Foster will be relieved to have some cooler, more experienced heads back in the fold for Saturday's intense series decider with Sam Whitelock and Nepo Laulala recalled to the pack.

A reaction is expected from a New Zealand team not short on quality, but Ireland have repeatedly shown themselves to be more than a match for the three-time world champions and should be emboldened by their recent successes.

Even when they haven’t won Ireland have tested New Zealand, bossing territory and possession in the first Test, only to be undone by a first-half flurry of tries from the All Blacks in a ten-minute spell.

Ireland coach Andy Farrell has put together two excellent game plans in the series, utilising the kicking skills of Jonathan Sexton, who is one point shy of 1,000 at international level, to great effect in the second Test.

The tourists, who managed to maintain the impetus gained from last week’s win with victory over the Maori All Blacks on Tuesday, also boast the more settled line-up with Farrell forced into just one change as Bundee Aki replaces Garry Ringrose in midfield.

Everything points to this being a tight encounter with the series on the line, but bookmakers see it differently, handing New Zealand a sizeable handicap to overturn.

Giving Ireland a ten-point start seems generous based on the series so far, and especially when the All Blacks’ recent poor record in Wellington is factored in.

New Zealand have won one of their last five matches in the capital, a sequence which features losses to South Africa and the British and Irish Lions, and draws against Australia and the Springboks.

The Sky Stadium lacks the fear factor of an Eden Park and a confident Ireland should be trusted to at least run the All Blacks close once more.

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