Rugby World Cup 2023: France v New Zealand predictions and rugby union tips: All Blacks to spoil Les Bleus' big night

Where to watch France v New Zealand

ITV1, 8.15pm Friday

Best bets

New Zealand to win by 11 to 20 points
1pt 5-1 bet365, BoyleSports

Rieko Ioane to score a try
1pt 12-5 BoyleSports, Betfair, Paddy Power

France v New Zealand odds

France 20-21
New Zealand 11-10
Draw 20-1 

France v New Zealand handicap betting

France -1
New Zealand +1

France v New Zealand preview 

Rugby World Cup hosts France are narrow favourites to kick off with a spectacular success over New Zealand on Friday night, but Les Bleus could be in for a Black Friday in Paris.

The All Blacks are used to turning up at the World Cup as tournament favourites with a record to be feared, but the build-up to this tournament has been their shakiest ever.

France, Ireland, South Africa, Australia and Argentina have all got the better of them at least once since the last World Cup, and even England pulled off a 25-25 draw at Twickenham. And after a bright start to 2023, the wheels came off in their final warm-up match when the Springboks hammered them 35-7 two weeks ago.

Les Bleus might think this is the perfect time to take on New Zealand in front of a fired-up crowd at the Stade de France. But French preparations have not been straightforward, either, and having already lost fly-half Romain Ntamack for the tournament, the hosts are also without creative centre Jonathan Danty plus forwards Paul Willemse and Cyril Baille for the Stade de France curtain-raiser.

Results have got away from New Zealand in the last three years but one thing that has stood out is their habit of coming back so much stronger from a setback. In 2020 they lost to Argentina for the first time, beaten 25-15 in neutral Sydney, but two weeks later the All Blacks got their revenge in a 38-0 victory. The following year Argentina claimed their first win on New Zealand soil, winning 25-18 in Christchurch, then just a week later were thrashed 53-0 in Hamilton.

New Zealand were second-best up front and their line-out didn't function two weeks ago against South Africa, so they will need to hold their own against a powerful French pack. But in the backline New Zealand look at their best, with free-scoring wingers Will Jordan and Mark Telea starting plus Rieko Ioane lining up in midfield after an injury to Jordie Barrett.

Jordan and Telea are the star turns but Ioane, who has 65 caps to his name since making his debut at 19, could be the value tryscorer pick to add to his tally of 35. He was surprisingly overlooked at the 2019 tournament, starting only one match, and will be keen to make his mark.

France were 40-25 winners when these teams last met in Paris in November 2021 but before that had lost 14 in a row to the All Blacks, and ten of those were by a double-figure scoreline. 

New Zealand have the cutting edge to pull away by the end and at the prices a New Zealand win by 11 to 20 points looks a promising bet.

Teams 

France: T Ramos; D Penaud, G Fickou, Y Moefana, G Villiere; M Jalibert, A Dupont; R Wardi, J Marchand, U Atonio, C Woki, T Flament, F Cros, C Ollivon, G Alldritt
Replacements: P Mauvaka, J-B Gros, D Aldegheri, R Taofifenua, P Boudehent, M Lucu, A Vincent, M Jaminet

New Zealand: B Barrett, W Jordan, R Ioane, A Lienert-Brown, M Telea; R Mo’unga, A Smith; E de Groot, C Taylor, N Laulala, S Whitelock, S Barrett, D Papali'i, S Cane, A Savea
Replacements: S Taukei’aho, O Tu’ungafasi, F Newell, T Vaa’i, L Jacobson, F Christie, D Havili, L Fainga’nuku

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