England v Tonga predictions and rugby union tips: Red Rose set to tonk Tonga

Free rugby union tips, best bets and analysis for Saturday's autumn international between England and Tonga at Twickenham.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, 3.15pm Saturday

Best bets

England to win by 51 to 60 points
1pt 7-2 bet365

England to win by 61 to 70 points
1pt 7-2bet365

M Tuilagi first tryscorer
1pt each-way 14-1Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

The last time England faced Tonga at Twickenham they ran in more than 100 points, and while bookmakers aren't expecting a win of quite that magnitude, Eddie Jones's men are still asked to cover a handicap of close to 60 points.

It's rare for England to even score that many points in a home Test - they've done it four times since that 101-10 success in the 1999 World Cup - but the most recent was their last outing under Eddie Jones, when they saw off Canada 70-14.

Canada are a fading force on the international stage, and the same can probably be said of Tonga, whose two matches this year against tier-one sides ended in a 102-0 defeat to New Zealand in the summer and last week's 60-14 reverse to a depleted Scotland.

The Scots made light of the absence of a number of frontline players in that win and England have issues of their own following skipper Owen Farrell's positive Covid test on Friday.

Farrell had already been switched to fly-half from his usual England role at number 12 as promising Marcus Smith, who started the two summer Tests, was deemed only fit enough for the bench with a niggling leg injury.

He may have to start, Farrell may yet be cleared to play, or one of Henry Slade or George Furbank could step in, but whatever the outcome, the disrupted preparations may hamper the fluency of England's attack.

England have occasionally been slow into their stride but Jones has picked a powerful side, with Manu Tuilagi starting at inside centre and Courtney Lawes bulking up the back row, and Tonga's defence looked pretty vulnerable last week.

The handicap in the high 50s is hard to juggle with at odds-on, and wagers on winning margins of 51 to 60 and 61 to 70 points ought to provide plenty of interest.

Scotland wingers Rufus McLean and Kyle Steyn scored Scotland's first three tries last week and England have danger men Jonny May and Adam Radwan out wide.

But given the uncertainty over England's starting half-back and the physical side selected, they may well go direct and Tuilagi looks a value pick for the first try at 14-1.

Safer Gambling Week runs from November 1-7 and is an initiative that the Racing Post fully supports. The Racing Post will be playing its part in ensuring the messages of this important week are conveyed to all our customers. If you are concerned about your gambling, more details on actions to take can be found at safergamblinguk.org.