England v South Africa predictions and rugby union tips: Boks to squeeze hosts

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Satuday's autumn international between England and South Africa.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, 5.30pm Saturday

Best bet

South Africa +4
2pts 10-11 Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power

Match preview

England fought back to snatch an unlikely draw from the re-run of their 2019 Rugby World Cup semi-final against New Zealand last week, and they are three-point favourites to avenge their subsequent final loss to South Africa on Saturday.

Since overcoming England 32-12 in that final, the Springboks went on to claim a series win over the British & Irish Lions last summer. Seven of the England squad for Saturday's clash saw Test action in that series.

They will know what to expect, and punters should have a pretty good idea too. South Africa never move far from the blueprint of a physical, uncompromising pack, fierce competition at the breakdown, and a lot of kicking for territory.

Even with speedsters such as Makazole Mapimpi in the backline, it's rarely spectacular, and even the most fluent attacking sides can find it hard to shake them off.

Last year's meeting between the teams ended with a 27-26 victory for England and ever since their World Cup success the story has been the same for the Springboks when they take on northern hemisphere opposition.

In 2021 and 2022, the Boks have lost five of 12 Tests - by five points in the first Lions Test, that one-point reverse at Twickenham, and another one-point defeat at home to Wales in the summer. Then this autumn, they have gone down 19-16 to world number one side Ireland and 30-26 to Six Nations champions France.

England coach Eddie Jones has shuffled his pack to deal with the threat posed by the Springboks, and there is plenty of strength on the bench to deal with the notorious Bok "bomb squad" - the nickname given to their usually massive and destructive raft of forward replacements.

South Africa name only five forwards on the bench this time but the front-row replacements look primed to ensure the Boks keep a squeeze on the game for the full 80 minutes and another brutal, close-fought clash looks to be on the cards.

England's fightback in the final 20 minutes against New Zealand gave an glimpse of what the side are capable of but the first half was again riddled with errors and lack of structure in defence, and they cannot afford any of that against the Boks.

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