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England ready to sign off in style against jaded Wallabies
Bench could prove decisive factor at Twickenham
Sky Sports Action, 3pm Saturday
The boot switches to the other foot by the end of November, when the southern hemisphere teams who arrived in Europe with the advantage of games under their belt over their hosts, start to feel the strain of weeks on tour while their opponents should be hitting their stride.
That could the the critical factor at Twickenham as Australia arrive for their final tour match against an England side who really need to sign off with an emphatic win.
Since the end of September, the Wallabies have played Test matches in South Africa, Argentina, Japan, Wales and Italy, and their preparations in the week between last Saturday’s victory over the Azzurri in Padua and the Twickenham showdown have been hampered by travel, injury and sickness in the camp.
The Australians insisted in the week they were over it all, but key back row man David Pocock has been withdrawn from the named side having failed to shake off an injury, while full-back Israel Folau has made the line-up despite illness in the week.
Pocock is a huge miss and it would be no surprise if Folau is short of his brilliant attacking best, and Australia could also be without the game-breaking magic of Kurtley Beale, who was left out of the original squad but may now be recalled.
Head coach Michael Cheika sticks with the two-playmaker axis of Matt Toomua at fly-half and Bernard Foley at 12 - the duo paired up in the victory in Padua last week but didn’t look at ease and this is a far tougher test.
England have had their injury setbacks too this autumn but the individuals brought in as cover have answered the call well and there is no reason why an inexperienced front row should lack confidence while exciting winger Joe Cokanasiga has been given the chance to build on his tryscoring debut last week.
It is as a team that England have failed to impress, and while they have been excellent at times, particularly in the first half an hour against New Zealand when they took a 15-0 lead, coach Eddie Jones will want an 80-minute performance.
The England bench could play a significant part in that, with Nathan Hughes ad Manu Tuilagi lining up to make a big physical impact in the second half.
England have won their last five matches against the Aussies, the last two at Twickenham and by margins of 24 and 16 points.
Bookmakers are pretty much agreed on an eight-point handicap and England should be a safe bet to cover that by the end, while it’s worth taking bigger odds-against quotes that they can pull away further.
Recommendation
England -8
3pts Evs bet365, Betway, BoyleSports
England to win by 13 points or more
1pt 6-4 general
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