Defensive solidity gives Exeter edge over Saracens at Sandy Park

Premiership
BT Sport 2, 3pm Saturday

Saracens and Exeter have separated themselves from the rest of the Premiership pack and it looks as if the head-to-head encounters between the top two will be decisive in the race for the regular-season title.

Exeter won both regular-season scraps last season, with a two-point success at home in November and a more convincing 24-12 away success in March. Both fixtures, crucially, fell in international windows when Sarries were harder hit by call-ups. When it got to the final, Sarries were convincing winners.

Both clubs went undefeated through the first eight rounds, picking up plenty of try-bonus points on the way, but only Saracens have an unblemished record after Exeter chose to give their returning internationals a week’s rest for the trip to Harlequins and suffered their first defeat.

A shock European defeat at home to Gloucester followed but the Chiefs bounced straight back to gain their revenge last weekend and should retain some of the focus and determination they showed in that fixture.

That could be the crucial factor as it takes a fired-up performance to stop Sarries scoring tries, but Exeter have the tools to do just that.

Saracens have bagged try-bonus points in all but two of their nine victories. The teams who gave them the hardest workout defensively were Harlequins, who outscored them two tries to one, and Leicester, where the tally was three apiece. Exeter have shipped just three tries in four league outings at home and they look best equipped of any club to halt the Sarries scoring juggernaut.

Set-piece will be crucial but Exeter have had the edge in previous encounters and they are fancied to edge it again, although there may be little in it.

Elsewhere in the Premiership, Leicester, with Geordan Murphy now installed as permanent head coach, are six-point favourites at home to Harlequins while Sale give up eight at home to Bristol.

Recommendation
Exeter to win by one to 12 points
1pt 2-1 Betfair

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