Autumn Nations Cup: Saturday's match previews, where to watch and free tips

Free rugby union tips, best bets and analysis for Saturday's Autumn Nations Cup games.

Italy v Scotland

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, 12.45pm Sunday

Best bets

Scotland -11
2pts 10-11 general

Stuart Hogg to score a try
1pt 9-5 Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

Scotland return to Italy nine months on from a 17-0 Six Nations victory over the Azzurri in Rome and a match which underlined the different directions in which these teams are heading.

It was the Scots' eight successive victory over Italy, their biggest winning margin away from home and a second win to nil in five meetings.

And after narrow Six Nations defeats to Ireland and England it was to mark the start of a four-match winning run culminating in a hard-fought 14-10 win over Wales two weeks ago.

There's every reason for confidence in the Scotland camp and they look ready to run up another convincing success.

Scotland have lost first-choice fly-half Finn Russell and back-up Adam Hastings to injury, a double blow that might have seriously hampered their chances of success in the past.

But Duncan Weir's recall for his first start since 2016 is far from a desperate measure. Weir has been in fine form for Worcester and had already been called into the squad as bench back-up earlier this year.

There has been a new look to Italy's squad under Franco Smith, above all with the selection of Paolo Garbisi at fly-half. The 20-year-old has made just three Pro14 appearances having broken into the Benetton first team and now picks up his third cap - a remarkable rise.

It's clear that Smith wants to build for the future but he needs to get his team firing in attack. The Azzurri have scored just 44 points in five matches this year, having lost to nil twice, and were beaten 34-5 last week by an England team who laboured badly in the first half.

All five of Italy's defeats this year have been by 13 points or more and Scotland should add to that run by covering an 11-point handicap.

It could also be worth backing full-back Stuart Hogg to get on the scoresheet. Hogg is the pinnacle of a Scotland attack that loves to play with pace and he has scored in his last three starts against the Azzurri.

England v Georgia

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, 3pm Saturday

Best bet

England to win by 31 to 40 points
1pt 3-1 general

Match preview

England first got to know Georgia in a 2003 Rugby World Cup group game when they ran out 84-6 winners, but the rugby world has learned a lot more about the team known as the Lelos since then.

There has been only one further meeting, at the 2011 World Cup when the winning margin was a more modest 41-10, but there has been another notorious showdown off the pitch.

In the build-up to the 2018 Six Nations England coach Eddie Jones called on the Georgia scrum to give his forwards a work-out in scrummage practice. It was recognition that the serial Six Nations B winners boast a set-piece of incredible power, or as Jones put it: "The biggest, ugliest, strongest scrum pack in the world."

It famously ended up with fists flying on the training paddock, so physical were the Georgians, and that side of their game is always pushed to the forefront.

Jones famously played an extra forward against them when he was Japan coach, and he has gone with a powerful pack for this Twickenham showdown, moving Maro Itoje from lock to the back row.

There's also a physical edge to the backline, where Worcester centre Ollie Lawrence makes his first start, but Jones has also gone for pace and trickery rather than defensive solidity, with Jonathan Joseph and Jonny May on the wings.

It's an interesting balance because for all that they are big and obdurate, points have been scarce against top-ranked sides.

They lost 48-7 in Scotland last month in their first match together for a year, while last year's Rugby World Cup brought defeats to their tier-one pool rivals Australia by 27-8 and Wales by 43-13. They also lost 45-10 to Fiji and were beaten 44-10 and 36-9 by Scotland in two warm-ups.

Jones will want a faster start from England after they were slow into gear against Italy last time out but Georgia should be stronger than they were against the Scots.

Georgia have conceded more than 17 first-half points in just one of their last ten Tests, while nine of their last ten defeats to tier-one nations have been by 34 points or fewer.

The handicap has been set at 40 points and a value wager looks to be backing England to win by 31 to 40 points. That has been the winning margin in three of their last four victories over tier-two nations.

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