Peek behind results for clues to what teams could do on the Premier League run-in

Newcastle might not be finished with this season yet. Over the next few seasons they should become the most successful of English teams. Over the past few weeks they have lost in the EFL Cup final – the play was close but the score was not – and dropped out of the Premier League top four.

In the Premier League, though, they may have got less than they deserved. Perhaps results will pick up. Could they qualify for the Champions League after all?

Start reading names and points from the top of the Premier League table: Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle with 63, 58, 49, 45, 42 and 41 points. Now look at goal differences: Arsenal +34, City +41, United +6, Tottenham +10, Liverpool +19 and Newcastle +18. They jump about.

Football is a results business. So goal difference is irrelevant, right? Wrong. And not only because teams who finish with the same number of points are separated on goal difference.

Suppose that at some stage during a season two teams are level on points but not on goal difference. You could argue that they had achieved the same results in contrasting ways. And you could conclude that each had played as well as the other and that over the rest of the season they were likely to gain an equal number of points.

However, there is evidence that goal difference gives us extra information about how well teams played in the past, and how well they will play in the future.

I studied the last 27 completed Premier League seasons, 1995-96 to 2021-22. I found teams who at this stage of a season had the same number of points but not the same goal difference. In each pair I will call the team with the higher goal difference Team A and the team with the lower goal difference Team B.

What happened during the rest of the season? How often did Team A gain more, the same or fewer points than Team B? The answer is that 54 per cent of the time they gained more points, six per cent of the time they gained the same number of points and 40 per cent of the time they gained fewer points.

When teams started level on points the one with a better goal difference was more likely to finish with more points.

What is the implication of teams being level on points but not on goal difference? One must have scored more goals that changed a result and conceded fewer goals that changed a result.

You could say they played with greater efficiency. They tended to score when it mattered and concede when it did not matter. You could suggest they were better at game management. And you might be right. More likely, though, they were simply lucky – goals for and against just happened to go in at convenient times for them.

Today in the Premier League top six there are no teams level on points, but there are teams with an unusual goal difference. How can you tell when a Premier League points total is unusual for the goal difference? Here is a method that will give you an acceptable answer in most circumstances. Anyone with a calculator can use it.

Start with a team’s goal difference, divide by games played, multiply by 0.633, then add 1.373, then multiply by games played. The number you end up with will be a typical points total for that goal difference.

If this team have gained more points they might have been lucky to get such good results. And if they have gained fewer points they might have been unlucky not to get better results.

Among the current top six which teams have an unusual points tally for their goal difference? Arsenal Manchester United and Tottenham have gained more points, Manchester City, Liverpool and Newcastle fewer points. It is likely that by different amounts results have been kind to Arsenal, United and Tottenham, unkind to City, Liverpool and Newcastle.

United lost three games by big scores – seven goals last Sunday at Liverpool, four goals at Brentford, three goals at City. In most of their games scores were much different and better. Liverpool won two games by big scores – seven goals last Sunday at home to United, nine goals at home to Bournemouth. In most of their games scores were much different and worse.

You could argue that Liverpool and United were involved in a small number of freak outcomes that should be ignored. And you might be right. But there is another possibility. It is that Liverpool will score and United will concede from a certain portion of shots and, just by chance, many of the Liverpool shots that went in, and many of the attempts against United that went in, were bunched in a small number of games.

In terms of results this worked out well for United and badly for Liverpool. But if we want a full assessment of how each played, and what they might do in future, perhaps we should not ignore those games completely.

The points a team have gained already put them in either a good or bad position, but it is conceivable that over what remains of the season Arsenal, United and Tottenham will accumulate points less quickly while City, Liverpool and Newcastle accumulate points more quickly.

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