West Ham corners bet could be a winner
Money brings success in the Champions League
Crystal Palace have taken two out of every three corners in their Premier League games at Selhurst Park. If they take two-thirds of the corners against West Ham on Saturday and more than six are taken in total they will win the corners battle by at least three.
But that might not happen. And there are reasons for thinking it is worth backing West Ham +3 corners at evens with Sky Bet.
The bet will fail if Palace win the corner count by three or more. But if there is any other make-up the bet will succeed. And despite the off-putting omens there are grounds for thinking a payout may be more likely than not.
One of the reasons that Palace have taken so many corners at Selhurst Park this season is that they have not got the results they expected and often deserved. When the ball just will not go in the goal it often goes out of play for a corner instead.
In their remaining home games Palace should get better results, and if they do, more likely than not, they will also take fewer corners.
There was nothing particularly unusual in the corners patterns in Palace’s games in previous seasons. Not last season, for example, when for all but four games they were also managed by Roy Hodgson. And there was nothing unusual either in the corners patterns of teams Hodgson managed before Palace.
This season Palace have played eight Premier League games at home to opponents from outside the big six. In only two of those would you have won if you had backed the visitors +3 corners. But in future the split is likely to be more favourable.
Result-related markets for the match imply a 58 per cent chance of Palace scoring each goal. This seems about right given that Palace have home advantage and are playing opponents who have six points more but at a neutral venue would probably be of a broadly similar standard.
Over the past 20 seasons in Premier League games with comparable goals expectations home teams also took about 58 per cent of all corners. A team with a 58 per cent chance of taking each corner that is awarded have something like an 11-8 chance of winning the corner count by three or more. Which means their opponents have an 8-11 chance of preventing that from happening.
Fair odds about West Ham +3 corners would not be as short as 8-11 – they would acknowledge the fact that we do not know when the unusual distribution of corners in Palace games will start to change. But they might still be shorter than evens.
Recommendation
West Ham +3 on corners handicap
1pt Evens Sky Bet
Thought for the week
The Champions League round of 16 starts on Tuesday. Forty-three of the last 44 finalists came from Spain, England, Italy, Germany or France. According to Champions League organisers Uefa those are the five countries in which footballers are paid the most. We should not be surprised that nearly always they are the best.
The latest Uefa Club Licensing Benchmark Report gives the average payroll of top-division clubs in 55 European countries for season 2016-17, the most recent for which all accounts have been published.
I compared that list with another: the Uefa country coefficients for 2016-17. This second list was compiled from the results of clubs in Uefa competitions, the Champions League and Europa League.
There was a strong correlation between them, even stronger than I had anticipated given that they cover only one season.
The top five countries ranked by average payroll were England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France. The top five countries ranked by Uefa coefficient were Spain, England, Germany, France and Italy. The same names, if not in quite the same order.
Uefa have now published average payrolls for four seasons – from 2016-17 back to 2013-14. In each season the top five places were filled by the same countries. The only positional changes involved Spain, Germany and Italy.
In fact the top 12 countries were always the same. Completing the top dozen were Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Portugal, Belgium, Switzerland and Austria. The only positional changes among them involved Portugal, Belgium and Switzerland.
We should not be surprised, then, to find that the Champions League round of 16 this season features four teams from England, three each from Spain and Germany, two each from Italy and France plus one each from the Netherlands and Portugal.
Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport
Published on inOpinion
Last updated
- Mark Langdon: Premier League rollercoaster leaves me sick
- Patrick Madden: Joe Schmidt's revolution should ensure the Lions won't have it all their own way Down Under
- Simon Giles: How Chelsea have kept moving in the right direction
- Joe Casey: How the final league Merseyside derby at Goodison Park could shape up
- James Milton: Rooney and Lampard struggling to find golden touch as managers
- Mark Langdon: Premier League rollercoaster leaves me sick
- Patrick Madden: Joe Schmidt's revolution should ensure the Lions won't have it all their own way Down Under
- Simon Giles: How Chelsea have kept moving in the right direction
- Joe Casey: How the final league Merseyside derby at Goodison Park could shape up
- James Milton: Rooney and Lampard struggling to find golden touch as managers