Treble-chasing Manchester City appear to be peaking at just the right moment

Manchester City won the domestic treble in 2018-19 and their odds to scoop an even more glittering haul this season – the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League – have been slashed after an excellent couple of weeks for Pep Guardiola's side.

At the start of the season the Citizens were 100-1 with BoyleSports to win the quadruple, and as short as 50-1 elsewhere, but in January they suffered a shock 2-0 defeat to the Premier League's bottom club Southampton in the EFL Cup quarter-finals.

However, backers of Pep's men to win the other three available trophies at 18-1 ante-post should be getting excited as their treble chances are now rated at just 2-1 by Hills. It is 11-1 that they end the season empty-handed.

City made light work of a seemingly difficult Champions League quarter-final draw against Bayern Munich, beating the German champions 3-0 at the Etihad Stadium before a 1-1 draw in Wednesday's second leg.

That sets up a fascinating semi-final clash with Real Madrid and the winners of that tie will be clear favourites to defeat either Milan or Inter in the final.

For now, though, City are focusing on domestic matters as Saturday's FA Cup semi-final against Championship side Sheffield United is followed by a crucial Premier League meeting with leaders Arsenal at the Etihad on Wednesday.

Guardiola has a dismal record in FA Cup semi-finals, losing four out of five, although those defeats came against Arsenal (twice), Chelsea and Liverpool.

The Citizens hammered Burnley, who have already sealed promotion from the Championship, 6-0 in this season's quarter-final so it would be a huge shock if their treble tilt was derailed by the second-tier Blades, who are 11-1 to qualify for the final.

Arsenal lost 1-0 at the Etihad in the FA Cup fourth round and another victory over the Gunners, who were 50-1 shots in the ante-post Premier League betting, would put City in control of the title race for the first time this term. 

They have been chipping away at Arsenal's advantage since the turn of the year, winning eight of their last nine league matches including a 3-1 success at the Emirates Stadium in February.

City's odds to retain their title have been cut from 11-8 at the start of April to 4-9 before Arsenal's home game against Southampton on Friday and the Gunners must be kicking themselves after letting slip two-goal leads in recent draws at Liverpool and West Ham.

Arsenal have lost on their last seven league and cup visits to the Etihad and their following three fixtures are against Chelsea, fourth-placed Newcastle and in-form Brighton, who are favourites for Sunday's second FA Cup semi-final against Manchester United.

City's league run-in looks more straightforward, with six of their remaining eight games against teams outside the top eight. A trip to Brighton – the date of which is yet to be confirmed – should be their toughest test after the clash with Arsenal.

The Gunners are fully focused on the Premier League while City are fighting on three fronts but Guardiola should be confident of conquering his former assistant Mikel Arteta given the form and fitness of the rival squads.

Arsenal boss Arteta has been working with a small core of players this season. Influential centre-back William Saliba has missed the leaders' last four matches while ex-City man Oleksandr Zinchenko, another key player for the Gunners, sat out last weekend's 2-2 draw at West Ham.

City, in contrast, are in great shape. Their only fitness concern before the second leg against Bayern was England international Phil Foden, who has recently returned to training after appendix surgery.

Players such as Jack Grealish, Nathan Ake and John Stones – thriving in a new role as a holding midfielder – have impressed since the World Cup and Julian Alvarez, who helped Argentina lift the trophy in Qatar, is a top-class understudy to the phenomenal Erling Haaland.

Seven of City's last nine league matches have been wins by at least a two-goal margin, including a 4-1 victory over Liverpool when Haaland was injured, so they appear to be peaking at the perfect stage of the campaign.

Guardiola is unlikely to get carried away with talk of the treble, though. After beating Brighton in the 2018-19 FA Cup semi-final – a 22nd victory in 23 games for the Citizens – he declared it "almost impossible" to complete a clean sweep.

Pep was proved right as City lost a dramatic Champions League quarter-final to Tottenham on away goals after a 4-4 aggregate draw.

Their dream of a first European crown ended in even more remarkable circumstances last season as they were knocked out by Real despite leading 5-3 on aggregate going into the 90th minute of the semi-final second leg.

A cup semi-final win over Sheffield United and a third victory of the season against title rivals Arsenal would set City up nicely for their revenge mission against Real next month. By then, perhaps, even the guarded Guardiola might admit they are in with a chance of matching Manchester United's famous 1999 treble.

Treble trouble - three of City's recent near misses

2018-19
Pep Guardiola's men claimed the domestic treble, winning the Premier League title by one point from Liverpool and hammering Watford 6-0 in the FA Cup final. However, they lost on away goals to Tottenham in a thrilling Champions League quarter-final tie in which a late Raheem Sterling strike, which would have taken City through to a semi-final against Ajax, was ruled out by VAR.

2020-21
City quadruple backers had a great run for their money in 2020-21. Pep's men were always in control of the title race, winning the league by 12 points from Manchester United, but their dream of a clean sweep was ended by a 1-0 FA Cup semi-final defeat to Chelsea on April 17.

They bounced back to beat Tottenham in the EFL Cup final a week later but, having defeated Paris St-Germain 4-1 on aggregate in the Champions League semi-finals, suffered another painful 1-0 reverse against Chelsea in the final in Porto.

2021-22
The title race went down to the wire with City eventually edging out Liverpool by one point thanks to a dramatic 3-2 final-day win over Aston Villa. The Citizens also reached the semi-finals of the FA Cup and the Champions League, losing 3-2 to Liverpool in the cup.

They led Real Madrid 5-3 on aggregate before Rodrygo's goals in the 90th and 91st minutes of the second leg took an extraordinary semi-final tie to extra-time and Karim Benzema sealed a 6-5 win for Real.

Rivals Liverpool came up just short in their bid for the quad, winning both domestic cups, finishing a point behind City in the Premier League, and losing 1-0 in the Champions League final despite having 24 shots to Real's four. 

How City's treble odds have changed during the season

August 7 – 18-1
City kick off their Premier League title defence with a 2-0 win at West Ham as new striker Erling Haaland scores his first two goals for the club.

October 8 – 10-1
Having been 12-1 at the start of October, City thrash Manchester United 6-3 and Southampton 4-0 either side of a 5-0 Champions League victory over Copenhagen – their third win out of three in Group G.

January 8 – 12-1
City, who hit 9-1 for the treble shortly before the World Cup break, draw with Everton in their final league game of 2022 and face Chelsea in the FA Cup third round.

January 15 – 16-1
After thumping the Blues 4-0 in the FA Cup, City are knocked out of the EFL Cup by Southampton and suffer a 2-1 league defeat to United at Old Trafford. They are pushed out from 9-1 to 16-1 for the treble.

February 15 – 17-2
City follow up their 1-0 FA Cup fourth-round win over Arsenal at the end of January with a crucial 3-1 league victory away to their title rivals.

March 18 – 8-1
Pep's men thrash RB Leipzig 7-0 in the Champions League last 16 and Burnley 6-0 in the FA Cup quarter-finals. However, a tough draw against Bayern Munich, and then the winners of the Real Madrid-Chelsea quarter-final, means they are eased for European glory.

April 16 – 2-1
April is the cruellest month, according to the poet TS Eliot, but not for the Citizens, who cruise past Bayern Munich to reach the Champions League semi-finals while Premier League leaders Arsenal blow 2-0 leads in draws at Liverpool and West Ham. Napoli, rated the strongest team in the other half of the Champions League draw, are eliminated by Milan.

Odds quoted are Hills' prices for Manchester City to win the Premier League, FA Cup & Champions League

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