The Premier League relegation race quickens to a sprint over the last five games

When I was a teenager I ran at Crystal Palace in a race after Steve Ovett. He went on to become an Olympic champion, I should add for those too young to know. He won his race. I came last in mine.

My tactics as a middle distance runner were to lead at the bell then speed up. I did. Those tucked in behind me would speed up even more and overtake me.

I understood from a young age what it must feel like to be a footballer for some teams on the last lap of a Premier League relegation race.

One is starting now.

Over the last five games of a season relegation-threatened teams pick up points more quickly. Some accelerate more than others. Those left behind go down.

We cannot be sure who will pull clear or who will fall back. But we can form an idea of how much relegation-threatened teams improve on average. What happens generally?

I studied the last 27 seasons, all those completed since the number of teams was reduced to 20 – 1995-96 to 2021-22.

At the end of each season three teams are relegated. Before most games some teams outside the bottom three will be worried about relegation and others, rightly or wrongly, will not. What we can say with certainty is that teams below the relegation line who have not been relegated already are unquestionably in danger of relegation. I focused on those.

When I talk about teams in the relegation zone from now on I will be referring only to those who could still get out.

So, the last 27 seasons. Teams in the relegation places before kick off averaged 1.06 points in the 33rd game. The rate rose to 1.14 points for the 34th and 35th games. It increased a bit more to 1.17 points for the 36th and 37th games. And then jumped to 1.32 points for the 38th game.

We do not usually bet on points but on games won, drawn or lost. How many of those were there?

For teams in the relegation places before the 33rd game kicked off the results were 27 per cent wins, 25 per cent draws and 48 per cent losses. From then on, the chance of winning went up and the chance of losing went down.

Teams in the relegation places before the 34th or 35th games kicked off won 30 per cent, drew 25 per cent and lost 45 per cent. Teams in the relegation places before the 36th or 37th games kicked off won 31 per cent, drew 25 per cent and lost 44 per cent. And teams in the relegation places before the last game kicked off won 36 per cent, drew 24 per cent and lost 40 per cent.

Over the final five games the chance of teams in the relegation zone winning or losing changed by up to nine per cent.

Why? I think the explanation has two parts.

People in desperate situations can sometimes do things they could not do before. It is better not to find out but not everybody has a choice.

I know someone who was chased by a hippopotamus. It was, naturally, the scariest moment of their life. They said they did not know they could run so fast.

The other part of the explanation, I think, is that football teams with a lot to play for sometimes face opponents who have nothing to play for. Among those are opponents who can no longer become champions, qualify for Europe or be relegated. They could relax and, more often than not, they do.

So relegation-threatened teams tend to get progressively better results on the run-in. Their games also become higher scoring, though that process starts a bit later. Total goals in the games of teams in the relegation zone before kick off averaged 2.7 up to and including the 35th round of fixtures, rose to 2.8 in the 36th, 2.9 in the 37th and 3.0 in the 38th. Better results and in higher scoring games.

Already this season some teams who were in danger of relegation have achieved standout results. Last Friday Southampton drew 3-3 at Arsenal. The weekend before Bournemouth won 3-2 at Tottenham. Over the next few weeks we may see more scores like those.

How good can relegation-threatened teams get? Teams in the drop zone before kick off played as well in the 34th and 35th games as teams who finished 14th, as well in the 36th and 37th games as teams who finished 13th – and as well in the 38th game as teams who finished tenth. Teams in relegation places can perform as well as teams in the top half of the table. Some of them still go down.

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