Notts County could be about to turn the corner

Mansfield v Notts County
Sky Bet League Two, 1pm Saturday

Mansfield have taken an unusually high share of the corners in their games, especially at home. Notts County have taken an unusually low share of the corners in their games, especially away.

Mansfield could dominate the corners count in their Sky Bet League Two Nottinghamshire derby, which kicks off at 1pm. But the chance of that happening may not be as great as bet365 imagine. Back Notts County +4 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.85 – fractional odds of 17-20.

If Mansfield win the corners count by more than four the bet will fail, if they win it by four stakes will be refunded and if anything else happens the bet will succeed.

Mansfield have started the season well. They are sixth in the table – in one of the playoff places and just three points below an automatic promotion place with a game in hand.

For Notts County things have gone terribly wrong. They are second from bottom and on their third manager of the season – Neal Ardley, recently of League One Wimbledon.

The result-related markets imply something like a 70 per cent chance of Mansfield scoring each goal that is scored. That is high but probably right, even though Notts should get better results in the rest of the season than they have so far.

Over the last 20 seasons in Football League games with similar goals expectations fair decimal odds about the away team +4 Asian handicap corners would typically have been around 1.5. At Field Mill today the odds should be bigger, but perhaps not as big as 1.85.

Anyone who had backed visitors to Mansfield this season +4 Asian handicap corners would have lost as often as they have won, which does not sound like an encouragement to back Notts at odds-on.

But Mansfield’s domination of corners counts is unusually strong even for a team with their good record of goals scored and conceded. Sooner or later they will start to perform less magnificently in corners handicap markets.

Notts have gained an unusually small share of corners, relative to the number of goals they have scored and conceded, since the beginning of last season. Even that unusual performance feature will change eventually, however, and the possibility of the change starting with this match may be better than bet365 anticipate.

Recommendation
Notts County +4 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.85 bet365

Thought for the day

A few weeks ago I listened to Darren Fletcher on Monday Night Football. He was articulate, intelligent, interesting. He is not alone.

A lot of professional footballers are articulate, intelligent and interesting. Not so long ago they were mocked wrongly as being thick. Why they were I will come to in a moment.

Another recent guest on Monday Night Football was the charming and insightful Troy Deeney.

Anyone who listens to the talk before, during or after televised football matches will have noticed that there are many current and former players who have thought deeply about the game, learned from good and bad experiences in it – and know how to express themselves entertainingly. They can be fascinating to listen to.

I could write a long list. A short list would have to include the likes of Gary Neville, Jamie Carragher, Rio Ferdinand, Jermaine Jenas and Danny Murphy.

So why were footballers called stupid? It is nasty to poke fun at anybody because they are not clever. The brain we are born with is something we have no control over. The sneering at footballers, though, was not only nasty but inaccurate.

Footballers used to sound awkward on television. Uncomfortable and in an unfamiliar environment they fell back on cliches. They were over the moon or sick as a parrot. What they lacked, though, was not the ability to speak eloquently but media training. Now they get it, and what a difference it makes.

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