No time to waste as punters and bookmakers adjust to new EFL and Premier League rules

The Premier League season kicks off on Friday but already managers and players are concerned about new rules introduced to combat time-wasting.

Speaking before the Community Shield, Pep Guardiola said: "Now, every game we're going to play for 100 minutes. Wasting time is not going to be solved by extending ten more minutes. It's more tiring for the players. It's too much."

It is safe to assume that Sunday's game at Wembley didn't convert the Manchester City boss, whose side conceded a 101st-minute equaliser against Arsenal and went on to lose on penalties.

The opening weekend of the 2023-24 EFL season provided a larger sample size for punters and bookmakers attempting to work out the possible betting implications of longer periods of added time at the end of each half.

The EFL, like the Premier League, are aiming to calculate the time taken by goals, substitutions, injuries, and set-pieces more accurately in order to increase the amount of time the ball is in play.

Similar measures were introduced at last year's World Cup, where there was an average of 11.6 minutes per match of added time in both halves, compared with 7.3 at the 2018 finals.

In the opening game of the new EFL season, Southampton's 2-1 win at Sheffield Wednesday last Friday, an additional 15 minutes were played – six in the first half and nine in the second.

"We knew there was going to be an increase and tweaked our models accordingly before the EFL curtain-raiser," says bet365's Steve Freeth. "It wasn't long before we tweaked them some more after referee Robert Madley produced five cards in the opening 45 minutes. We saw noticeable interest in the goals and cards markets for the opening weekend but managed to come through relatively unscathed."

At Northampton's League One fixture against Stevenage there were 22 bonus minutes, 14 of them at the end of the second half, and Boro boss Steve Evans believes the changes to time-keeping will hurt smaller clubs.

In the past, Evans explained after his side's 1-0 win: "If you got to 80 minutes and one of your players is hobbling around, you'd think they could get through to the end. If you're adding another 15 minutes, that's going to be a concern for the smaller squads. We're light on the bench, there's no one available to come in, only injured players."

The additional 22 minutes – or 24.5 per cent of a regular 90-minute football match – at Sixfields made headlines but overall the EFL calculated there was an average increase of 5.9 minutes of added time per game compared with last season.

The ball was in play for an average of 58 minutes in last weekend's Championship, League One and League Two matches, up from 50 minutes in 2022-23, and significantly more goals were scored than in the corresponding weekend last season.

This term's first 35 EFL matches – Colchester versus Swindon was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch – produced 97 goals compared with 79 in 36 games in the opening round of fixtures last season. It is worth noting, though, that the 2022-23 Championship got off to an unusually low-scoring start with just 16 goals in the first 12 matches.

This season, 15 of the 97 goals in EFL games were scored in added time, compared with just three last term. While it is too early to draw any firm conclusions, and the rules may well be eased as the season goes on, the increase in added time is clearly an important factor for punters to consider.

"This week, our goals, bookings and corners lines have all gone up slightly in order to counteract the effect of the extra playing time," says Coral football trader Chris Wood. "We'd expect to see a little more interest on lively correct scores going forward and we have certainly had to adjust our in-play strategy to reflect the change in the rules."

Bet365's Freeth has already witnessed the implementation of the new rules. "I was at Stoke versus Rotherham last Saturday, when ten cards were shown and the Potters scored twice in the seven minutes of first-half injury-time," he says. "And in Tuesday's EFL Cup tie at the bet365 Stadium, West Brom goalkeeper Josh Griffiths was booked for time-wasting despite the Baggies being 2-1 down!

"We cut the Championship keepers to be carded last week and we've done the same with the Premier League stoppers this weekend. The big question is, how long will this last? Will it be a three-week job or is it here to stay?"

Only time will tell but, for now at least, punters should expect plenty of late drama as the clock ticks past 90 minutes.

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