Leeds must choose carefully when it comes to replacing Marsch

Leeds head into vital matches against Everton and Southampton over the next two weekends without a permanent manager following the sacking of Jesse Marsch last week. Most Leeds fans were desperate for a change, yet the fact that Southampton came close to hiring the American this week emphasises a lot of the contradictions about Leeds’s performances this term.

Much of the evidence, both on the pitch when you watch Leeds, and on the stats sheet afterwards, is conflicting, making them one of the hardest sides to weigh up.

They were winless in seven and above the drop zone only on goal difference when Marsch departed, even though some expected-points models rating them as high as 12th.

So, what to believe? They were certainly capable of making life awkward for opponents for spells in games, but ultimately Leeds fans were frustrated to see the same fatal flaws continuing to come back to haunt them.

Their style under Marsch was distinct, with an aggressive high press making it difficult for teams to pass and build up from the back against them. They have made the most tackles in the final third and ranked second, just behind Manchester City and ahead of Newcastle and Arsenal, for forcing high turnovers.

Top sides are able to find the right balance between getting the rewards of pressing without being exposed at the back too regularly. While Leeds have scored significantly more goals than all of the other relegation candidates, apart from Leicester, they have also been far too leaky, conceding at least two goals in seven of their last ten games.

Opponents would make adjustments and their own players would begin to tire meaning eventually the press got played through or over more often, and their preference to play narrow or to try to overload the side of the pitch that the ball was on left them vulnerable to quick switches to the other flank where opponents could find space to attack the exposed backline.

The other emphasis under Marsch was on direct vertical passing at the earliest opportunity. They ranked top of Opta’s ‘direct speed’ metric for quick progressive passing - a tactic that sometimes paid dividends when able to exploit space in behind, but also led to them giving the ball away a lot.

It helps explain one of their biggest shortcomings - the inability to maintain leads. They have scored the opening goal in 41 per cent of matches, ranking 12th, but have earned only 1.33 points-per-game in those instances, with only Southampton winning fewer points from those situations, and only Leicester guilty of dropping more points from winning positions overall.

The best way to maintain leads is to keep the ball, and an unwillingness to try to add a better structure to maintain possession more in those instances has repeatedly proved costly. 

According to Understat data, they rank 20th for expected goal difference per 90 when leading, equal-11th when drawing and sixth when trailing. Those need to be taken with a pinch of salt due to smaller sample sizes, but it does help back up the theory that their frantic style, in and out of possession, is best suited to forcing games rather than seeing them out when ahead.

The break for the World Cup would perhaps have been a more opportune time to replace Marsch than just after the transfer window. One of the reasons they may have held on was the hope that their league position would finally catch up with their better underlying numbers.

The game state where Leeds have been most ‘unlucky’ is when trailing by one goal. In those situations, they have created more than their opponents in terms of expected goals by 6.4-5.2, but have been actually outscored 4-9. Projecting that over 90 minutes, the expected-goals part of that stat ranks seventh-best but their results were 18th-best. 

A total of 19 points is at the low end of what they might have expected to gather based on the chances in their games, but probably only to the extent that several of their narrow losses could have been draws. That might have helped the atmosphere slightly, but they would still be in a relegation scrap.

There were some good aspects, but ultimately failure to make adjustments when teams were able to expose familiar weaknesses, compounded a bit by bad variance with opposition finishing, cost Marsch his position.

The standard in the division, both on the pitch and in the dugout has never been higher, and it’s possible Leeds can do better. But they could also do worse, and failure to land any of their initial targets is a worry.

Some of the sides around them have already made a move for a new manager and are showing signs of improvement. There are enough ingredients for a reasonable outfit to emerge, but a lot of the pieces were bought for Marsch’s style, so making the right choice to retain as many of the plus points as possible while adding a bit more savviness in the right moments is vital.

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport