Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein

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Dundee +2.5 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.8 bet365

Back Dundee +2.5 Asian handicap corners in their Scottish Premiership game at St Johnstone. Bet365 quote decimal odds of 1.8, equivalent to the fractional price of 4-5. If Dundee lose the corners count by three or more the bet will fail, in any other circumstances it will pay out.

Newly promoted Dundee have yet to win in the Premiership. They have drawn three and lost four of their seven games. They did beat Motherwell in the League Cup, although they then lost to Saturday’s opponents, holders St Johnstone.

Probably Dundee are better than their results indicate but not as good as St Johnstone, who will enjoy ground advantage.

The result-related markets imply a 48 per cent chance of a win for the Saints, a 29 per cent chance of a draw and a 23 per cent chance of a win for the Dees. Those percentages probably are not wrong by much, if they are wrong at all.

In previous seasons in Premiership games with similar result expectations the away team beat an Asian handicap corners line of +2.5 more often than is suggested by decimal odds of 1.8. They imply a 56 per cent chance of success.

Fair odds for this clash would be bigger than they normally are, but perhaps not as big as 1.8.

Dundee have not fared well in Premiership corners handicap markets this season, but their stats do not look nearly as bad if you strip out games against Rangers and Celtic - they lost the corners count by eight at Celtic and by four at home to Rangers.

In the Championship in the two seasons before this one Dundee’s corners for and against were consistent with their goals for and against.

In earlier seasons in the Premiership, it is true, Dundee did often fare poorly in corners handicap markets, as they have at the start of this season. So there are conflicting signals. Premiership stats are more relevant, but most of them are a lot older. All things considered it still seems possible that decimal odds for Dundee +2.5 Asian handicap corners should be shorter than 1.8.

Thought for the week

Here we go again.

Seven days ago Manchester City beat Chelsea and all I heard was that they were going to win the Premier League, there was no one who could touch them.

Six days earlier Chelsea had beaten Tottenham and all I heard then was that they were going to win the Premier League, there was no one who could stop them.

One of the reasons Chelsea were praised was that they had beaten a Tottenham side who played well. The Tottenham coach was said to have shown great tactical acumen. Seven days later no one would accept that Tottenham could ever play well or that the coach was anything but a tactical dunce.

Nearly every weekend during a football season cries go up, and most of them flatly contradict cries that had gone up the weekend before. And hardly anyone seems to notice. Everyone is certain that what has just happened will be repeated over and over again forever. No one seems to remember how recently they were equally sure of something else and that was not repeated over and over forever.

Every time City win I hear that this proves they did not need to sign a striker in the summer. Every time City do not score I hear that this proves they should have signed a striker in the summer.

City play Liverpool on Sunday. If Liverpool win all I will hear is that Liverpool are going to win the Premier League and there is no one who can touch them.

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