Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Espanyol +0.5 Asian handicap cards
1pt 2.05 bet365

Take Espanyol to receive as many or more cards than Getafe when they meet tomorrow in La Liga.

Espanyol can be backed +0.5 Asian handicap cards with bet365 at decimal odds of 2.05, equivalent to the fractional price of 21-20. Each yellow will count as one card, each red as two cards. If Espanyol's total is equal to or greater than Getafe’s total the bet will win, otherwise it will lose.

There are three major concerns with this bet, which is why the line is where it is – but, even, so, there are reasons for thinking the odds may be too big.

The first concern is that Getafe have received a large number of cards, not only this season but for a large number of seasons. However, they have tended to provoke opponents into an unusually large number of cards as well.

At home this season in La Liga Getafe have received most cards in four games out of five, but that is abnormal for them, even allowing for the fact that this season results have been abnormally bad.

Getafe are bottom of the table with only three points from 11 games. All of their points came from draws – two in the three games since Quique Sanchez Flores was brought back for his third spell as manager. He is a former Espanyol boss.

Secondly, Espanyol have fared well in card handicap markets, as did coach Vicente Moreno’s previous club Mallorca.

And the final cause for concern is that this season in La Liga home teams have received almost as many cards as away teams, even though crowds have returned. Tomorrow Getafe are at home, Espanyol away. The gap between home and away cards will probably widen as the season goes on, but that is not certain to happen.

Even allowing for all of the unhelpful omens, however, it is still possible that decimal odds of 2.05 for Espanyol +0.5 Asian handicap cards are too high.

Thought for the week

I think it was Jamie Carragher who said that hardly anyone tipped Liverpool for the Premier League at the start of the season but they could win. Clearly they could. They are now second in the table, one point behind Chelsea, one point ahead of Manchester City.

There is a reason, I think, why few people tipped Liverpool before the season. The case for them was hard to make, and the case for others was easy to make.

Out of 20 BBC pundits, 13 tipped Manchester City, seven tipped Chelsea – and none tipped Liverpool. None tipped Manchester United, either, though they were fancied by some pundits elsewhere.

The case for Manchester City was simple. They won last season, they had signed Jack Grealish for £100 million and they were trying to sign Harry Kane.

The case for Chelsea was also simple. They had beaten Manchester City in the Champions League final, having improved since the moment Thomas Tuchel became manager last October, and during the summer they had signed Romelu Lukaku for £97m.

The case for Manchester United was straightforward too. They finished second last season. They had signed Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane and would sign Ronaldo.

The case for Liverpool was not obvious. They finished third last season and had not signed anyone of note. The season before, though, they had won the Premier League. If they could reproduce those performances – it was an if – they should become serious contenders.

One of the replicated findings of behavioural psychology is that when we are asked a hard question we answer an easier one instead, without realising what we are doing. Who will win the Premier League? That is a hard question. Unconsciously we tend to answer an easier question instead: who can we make a plausible argument for saying are the best team at the moment based on recent developments?

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