Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Norwich 0 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.775 bet365

Back Norwich to receive most cards in their Premier League game at Everton. Bet365 offer decimal odds of 1.775 – equivalent to the fractional price of 31-40 – about Norwich 0 Asian handicap cards.

Each yellow will count as one card and any reds as two cards. If Norwich’s total is higher the bet will win, if both totals are the same stakes will be returned, and if Everton’s total is higher the bet will lose.

The one and only reason for thinking this bet might represent value for money is that cards tend to follow the balance of play, and in the sort of game it seems reasonable to anticipate at Goodison Park fair decimal odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap cards would typically be a lot shorter than 1.775.

Most cards are shown for well-intentioned but misjudged attempts to stop an attack. Today Norwich are likely to do more defending than Everton.

Norwich will gain points back in the Premier League, even though they have none after five games. They are probably a lot better than their results suggest. Even so, it is not unreasonable to conclude that today Norwich are less likely than Everton to score most goals. This could be the seventh highest payroll against the 19th.

Result-related markets imply a 59 per cent chance of an Everton win, a 25 per cent chance of a draw and a 16 per cent chance of a Norwich win. Those percentages probably are not far off, if at all.

There are three reasons for thinking that at Goodison Park today fair decimal odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap cards would not be as short as they usually are for this type of game, but that they still might not be as big as 1.775.

First, Premier League referees this season have shown more yellow cards to home players than away players. For a time when there are fans in grounds this is unusual, and may change as more games are played, but it is not certain to.

Second, Everton have received twice as many cards as their opponents in their first five games. This is unusual for them, and for teams directed by new manager Rafa Benitez. It probably will not continue for long, though it could.

And third, Norwich in the last few seasons in the Premier League and Championship have received slightly fewer cards than we should have anticipated from their results.

Thought for the week

Why did Manchester City lose to Chelsea in the Champions League final? They meet today in the Premier League for the first time since then.

The popularly accepted explanation is that City lost because manager Pep Guardiola tried to be too clever and tinkered with the formation, starting without a recognised defensive midfielder. He wanted the credit if City won, the story goes, but instead they lost and he should get the blame.

I think this is wrong. Nothing I or anyone else says now will make any difference, I accept – the story has become established football folklore. But here goes anyway.

City had played Chelsea twice before in the previous six weeks and lost both times – in an FA Cup semi-final then in the Premier League. I think Guardiola looked back at those games and was concerned, not so much because City had lost but because they had struggled to create chances. In each game he had tried something a bit different, but in neither had it worked.

For the Champions League final, I think, he felt he needed to try something else. He started with an extra creative player. City lost 1-0, so in that sense it did not work, but they did create some chances. On another day one or more might have gone in.

And even with Rodri or Fernandinho instead of Gundogan as the deepest midfielder they probably still would have conceded the goal they did concede. Chelsea scored from a three-pass counter-attack. When it started Gundogan was in the sort of position Rodri or Fernandinho would have been in, and it is unlikely either of them would have been able to stop it.

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