Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Scunthorpe +3 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.95 bet365

Top play bottom in League Two – Forest Green travel to Scunthorpe. Although they will be away from home, Forest Green naturally are clear favourites with bookmakers to score most goals.

They should also be clear favourites to take most corners. But the chance of them winning the corners count by a large margin may not be as great as bet365 suggest.

Back Scunthorpe +3 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.95, equivalent to the fractional price of 19-20. If Scunthorpe lose the corners count by four or more the bet will go down, if they lose it by three stakes will be returned and if something else happens the bet will payout.

In long-term markets, Forest Green are favourites to finish top and Scunthorpe are favourites to finish bottom. This is not the same as saying they will end up in those positions. There is a long way to go, another 35 games.

Nonetheless the result-related odds for the Glanford Park clash, it seems to me, are reflective of what happened in previous seasons in games when the team who did finish top played away to the team who did finish bottom. They imply a 14 per cent chance of a Scunthorpe win, a 25 per cent chance of a draw and a 61 per cent chance of a Forest Green win.

In such games, I believe, fair decimal odds about the home team +3 Asian handicap corners would normally be shorter than 1.95.

Scunthorpe can lose the corners count by more than three. They lost it by four in their last home game, against Port Vale, who are now three places below Forest Green. Scunthorpe in that game had less of the ball than their opponents, and over the season they have averaged just 45 per cent possession, compared with a high 55 per cent for Forest Green.

Forest Green will probably have more of the ball on Saturday. They may win the game, and they may take more corners – but the chance of them prevailing in the corners count by four or more may not be as high as bet365 estimate.

Thought for the week

Even Terry Butcher has said it: “Eventually I want to see football with no heading.”

Butcher played for England in a 1989 World Cup qualifier with his head swathed in a blood-soaked bandage. If anyone is remembered as a brave header of the ball it is Butcher. He knows now what he did not know then: heading is dangerous.

Butcher told the BBC’s Sports Desk Podcast: “I think heading is something that has been strong, particularly in Britain with the way that we used to play, but not so much now. I think it is something we can do without.

“It would rule out the trauma of heading a football, particularly at pace – brain trauma, because your brain is going to rattle against your skull. You’re looking at aerial collisions where you know you have no real control.

“The tackles now are really watered down from what they were in my era because of the risk of a red card. Heading can adapt as well.”

Head injuries, it should go without saying, can be more serious than leg injuries.

Last month there was an experimental game played by current and former professionals without heading – or rather, no heading in the second half and only in the penalty area in the first half.

Regular football without heading would be different, particularly at corners and free kicks. Scoring goals in some situations would be harder, but in others attacking play would be easier – defenders could not head away a lofted through ball, for example.

Think of all the ways that football has been changed in recent years, sometimes for no good reason. It can be played without heading.

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