Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Crewe +3.5 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.875 bet365

Wycombe and Crewe are teams from near opposite ends of League One. Wycombe are third, Crewe 23rd. Wycombe are in the first of the playoff places, Crewe are in one of the relegation places.

Wycombe at home to Crewe are more likely to score most goals. They are also more likely to take most corners. However, they may not be as likely as bet365 suggest to win the corners count by a large margin.

Back Crewe +3.5 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.875, equivalent to a fractional price of 35-40. If Crewe lose the corners count by four or more the bet will fail, but if something else happens it will succeed.

Wycombe have taken a lot of corners this season in their home games, Crewe have not taken a lot of corners in their away games. Wycombe have taken 64 per cent of all the corners in their home games, Crewe have taken 35 per cent of all the corners in their away games.

Even so, Wycombe won the corners count by four or more in only two out of five home games while Crewe lost the corner count by four or more in only three out of seven away games.

Corners expectations normally move in tandem with goals expectations, because both are potential by-products of attacking play.

The result-related markets for Adams Park imply a 65 per cent chance of a Wycombe win, a 22 per cent chance of a draw and a 13 per cent chance of a Crewe win. Those percentages seem in the right sort of places.

In EFL games with similar result expectations fair odds about the away team +3.5 Asian handicap corners would normally be shorter than 1.875. They should not be as short as usual today because of the number of corners taken and defended by Wycombe at home and Crewe away - even though corners for Wycombe and against Crewe have tended to be bunched rather than spread evenly across games.

Even so it is possible that the odds for Crewe +3.5 Asian handicap corners should not be as big as 1.875.

Thought for the week

There are at least eight teams who would not surprise me if they won the Champions League. Who will win?

It might not be one of the teams who look best now.

Chelsea are the reigning European Champions. They did not look like European champions last October.

Chelsea succeeded Bayern Munich. They had not looked like European champions the October before.

In fact, both teams flopped early in the season and two managers paid with their jobs. Of course, the teams might have improved and still become European champions with the old managers, but we will never find out.

What matters in the Champions League between September and December is to qualify from your group. Any way you qualify is good enough. Then there is a break until February when the knockout rounds begin.

The team who win the Champions League will probably be a good team who play well and get some good fortune between February and May. This could be a team who are grabbing headlines now, or one who are not. If a week is a long time in politics then nine months is an eternity in football.

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