Kevin Pullein: EFL football tips, betting strategy and insight

In the last few weeks of a season, it is even harder than usual to find good bets. On Saturday there are a couple of bets that might represent value for money, but both are in games that are much more difficult than usual to evaluate, so I suggest splitting a stake between them. This is generally a time for caution.

Both bets are with bet365. The first is Blackpool +4 Asian handicap corners away to Barnsley in Sky Bet League One at decimal odds of 1.95 – equivalent to fractional odds of 19-20. The second is Port Vale 0 Asian handicap corners at home to Macclesfield in League Two at decimal odds of 1.9 – 9-10 in fractional odds.

Barnsley need to win to improve their chance of automatic promotion from League One. Blackpool can no longer be promoted or relegated.

Macclesfield need to win to strengthen their hope of staying in League Two. Three points today would be enough if Notts County and Yeovil got only one point or none. Port Vale cannot be promoted or relegated.

Naturally the score-related odds are more favourable than they would otherwise have been to the teams who still have something to play for.

It is always hard in such situations to know how far expectations should shift. I would make two observations. Bookmakers are more likely to move the score-related odds too far than not far enough (because they know most of their customers like to back teams that need to win). But if the score-related odds are exactly where they should be then arguably the odds for Blackpool and Port Vale in these corners handicap markets are too big.

Normally there is a relationship between goals and corners (because both are an occasional byproduct of attacks). And in the sort of matches anticipated by the win odds for Barnsley and Macclesfield fair odds in Asian handicap corners markets would typically be bigger than 1.95 for Blackpool +4 and bigger than 1.9 for Port Vale 0.

A lot will depend on whether and when Barnsley and Macclesfield get in front. The longer they are level or behind the worse for the prospects of their opponents on corners handicap lines, because it will increase the length of time that they have to attack with maximum intensity.

The Port Vale bet will lose if Macclesfield take most corners, stakes will be refunded if both teams take the same number, otherwise it will win. The Blackpool bet will lose if Blackpool are beaten on the corners count by five or more, stakes will be refunded if they are beaten by four, otherwise it will win.

Recommendations
Blackpool +4 Asian handicap corners
0.5pt 1.95 bet365
Port Vale 0 Asian handicap corners
0.5pt 1.9 bet365

Thought for the week

The best use of technology in football has been vanishing spray. It is simple and effective. Encroachment at free kicks is now rare, almost extinct.

Another basic technological innovation would also improve the game: a stopwatch that is paused when the ball is out of play. Like vanishing spray – and unlike VAR – it would make the game fairer and more enjoyable to watch.

And it would never be more welcome than near the end of a season, when teams who want a match to finish with no more goals being scored waste even more time than they usually do. As we saw in the Premier League on Monday when Burnley drew at Chelsea.

I do not blame Burnley. They would be daft not to do whatever the laws allow them to do to give themselves the best chance of getting the result they want.

I blame the lawmakers, who still insist absurdly that a match is in progress when the ball is out of play.

So a team who want the match to end with the current score can improve the chance of that happening by refusing for a long time to restart play when they get a goal kick, throw, free kick or corner. Alternatively players can fall over and stay down until the referee stops play. In a well-organised team players will take turns to pretend to be injured so the referee does not get fed up with any one of them.

Law 7 of association football says “allowance is made by the referee in each half for all time lost in that half through… wasting time”. It does not happen. And I do not blame the referees. If a referee added a double-digit number of minutes to a half they would probably get as much abuse for allowing too much stoppage time as they get now for allowing too little. Who would be a referee?

All of this aggravation is unnecessary and would stop if a match lasted for, say, 60 minutes of playing time – which is more than we usually get now even when neither team are wasting time. It is nonsensical for a match clock to be ticking at any moment when a goal cannot be scored.

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