Kevin Pullein: Be sceptical of turning points and season-defining moments

It was said to be a season-defining moment. Last Saturday, after a disappointing start to the season, Tottenham won 2-1 at home to Southampton in the Premier League. They played for nearly an hour with ten men, during which they conceded the equaliser but then scored the winner.

Tottenham probably did not deserve to win, but they did win. This feels like a turning point, people said. Then on Tuesday Tottenham lost 7-2 at home to Bayern Munich in the Champions League.

I suspect the Bayern score gives a misleading impression not only of the abilities of both teams but also of their performances on the night. I could watch only the first half, during which I thought play had been fairly even, though too open at both ends. Although Tottenham trailed 2-1 I thought they had been slightly better than Bayern.

Presumably the second half was different. Even so, stats still suggest that by full time there was not much to choose between the performances, though by then Bayern’s had eclipsed Tottenham’s.

Never before had Tottenham conceded seven goals at home in a major competition. This should tell us something, and not what most people heard. It should tell us that the score was almost certainly a freak.

Many people say Tottenham have been in decline since losing the Champions League final in June. I thought that overall last season Tottenham played less well than they had in any of the previous three seasons, but still better than the owners or fans could reasonably have asked for. Any season in which Tottenham finish higher than sixth in the Premier League they have over-achieved. And credit to them for doing so.

Be sceptical, though, whenever you hear talk of turning points or season-defining moments. Rarely can these be identified accurately at the time. Many teams who win the FA Cup say afterwards that they felt their name was on the trophy. Earlier in the competition the same feeling will have grown in other teams who then got knocked out.

Bet of the week

Hearts +0.5 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.875 bet365

In their first Ladbrokes Scottish Premiership away game this season Kilmarnock took 17 corners and faced one. That was at Hamilton. Kilmarnock conceded two goals without reply then played more than half an hour against ten men. Even so, the corners count was extraordinary.

But there has not been another one like it since. So it might have been just a fluke. And if it was there could be value-for-money today in opposing Kilmarnock on a corners handicap at Hearts.

Back Hearts +0.5 Asian handicap corners with bet365 at decimal odds of 1.875 – similar to fractional odds of 20-23. The bet will succeed if Hearts take as many or more corners than Kilmarnock.

Hearts started the season disappointingly and are heavily depleted by injuries but they got a win and a draw from their last two outings – 2-1 in an Edinburgh derby at Hibs then 0-0 at St Mirren.

The result-related markets for Tynecastle today seem about right, suggesting that Hearts are still slightly more likely to score most goals, implying roughly a 38 per cent chance of a Hearts win, a 29 per cent chance of a draw and a 33 per cent chance of a Kilmarnock win.

In previous seasons in Premiership games with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the home team taking at least as many corners as the away team typically would have been about 1.625. Odds of 1.625 indicate a 61 per cent chance of a payout. Odds of 1.875 indicate a 53 per cent chance of a payout.

Fair odds today would be bigger than 1.625, but arguably not as big as 1.875.

Hearts at home this season have taken fewer corners than they have faced. But they have played only three home games. And they took most corners in the first, so you could say it is only over the last two home games that Hearts’s corners record is unusual. And two is not a lot. This could be the beginning of a longer term trend, more likely it is not.

Kilmarnock manager Angelo Alessio was assistant to Antonio Conte with Siena, Juventus, Italy and Chelsea. Conte’s teams outperformed corners handicap markets in several seasons, though not in all. Kilmarnock could this season. But the only hint so far was that lone game at Hamilton. Today it could pay to trust Hearts to take at least as many corners as Kilmarnock.

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