Influence of xG can often be overstated for the purposes of football punting

Modern football is awash with statistics and there are punters who have been very successful by taking a numbers-based approach, but I have always had a different strategy and it has served me well for many years.

One of the areas where I find the use of numbers is essential is when it comes to analysing past wagers.

And, since I have kept figures for the last 15 football seasons of punting performance, I know for certain that 14 of those 15 seasons have delivered a profit.

What I cannot predict is whether or not I will make a profit next season because football and betting are fast moving spheres and it is far from simple to stay ahead of the curve.

I have been asked what the secret is to successful punting and my opinion is that there is no secret.

It comes down to hard work and getting a feel for which information is more important - something I will get to later - and which can be largely ignored.

Most of my punting is done on the top four divisions of English football and it is a huge challenge to cover those 92 clubs with the necessary depth to ensure confidence in identifying value bets.

I try to watch the match highlights for those top four divisions, take a look at the match reports and shot statistics and witness as many pre and post-match manager interviews as possible.

All of this helps to build a picture of how teams are performing and whether they are as good as their recent results and league position might indicate.

Even better information can be gleaned by watching live matches and, better still, if you are at the game itself it is far easier to assess teams and players in person than on a television screen.

However, there are limits to how much football we can all consume and you have to understand your limitations.

That means accepting that, however hard you try, regular fans of those teams will know those players' strengths and weaknesses better than you, and it makes sense to tap into the views of the fanbases when working out whether to proceed with or discard a potential wager.

That could be by talking to someone you know or having a look at the social media reaction to certain player performances or manager team selections.

Football is a game of opinions and supporters often disagree over the assessment of teams and players, but if the vast majority are saying the same thing, it is worth taking note.

Focus on the most valuable information

It is important to target your search for knowledge to help uncover material that the market doesn't fully account for.

I've always been somebody who looks at team news as a way of unearthing a bet but sometimes it can be rather too obvious.

If the breaking news reveals that Harry Kane will be missing for Tottenham's next game or Aleksandar Mitrovic is absent for Fulham, it is not going to take long for the match markets involving those teams to react accordingly.

But there will always be unsung heroes for certain teams and by doing your research and working out who they are, you may have a better chance of gaining an edge whenever those individuals are absent or returning from a layoff.

One such example would be Forest Green's midfielder Ebou Adams, who provides the energy, quality and physicality which is so integral to the team's performances.

He failed to make the EFL's League Two Team of the Season but is valued by those in the know and is a widely reported target for Championship clubs.

If a player you recognise to be influential is going to be missing, it helps to be aware of how competent the likely replacement will be.

Again it comes down to knowledge. Being aware of the strengths and weaknesses of a club's entire squad is more beneficial than simply knowing about the first eleven.

In the Premier League the clubs with the deepest squads are often the most successful and this should be even more apparent in the lower leagues where teams have to play two games a week on a regular basis, creating more possibilities for injuries, suspensions and fatigue to come into play.

Assessments of squad strength are made by combing over past events but your purpose as a punter is to look forward, not back.

People often feel safer by backing teams who have been on a winning streak and opposing those on a losing run.

But these wagers will often be at shorter odds than they should be due to the betting public's general preference for siding with in-form teams.

Good and bad runs will always come to an end and the better value bets can be unearthed by working out when that is likely to happen.

Many punters would argue that there are statistical ways of doing this and point to expected goals (xG) as a simpler and less time consuming way forward.

But with xG so widely available, I believe it is already massively influencing the markets and, in some cases, its influence may be greater than it should.

There are plenty of games where xG gives an accurate reflection of a game, but many other times when it doesn't.

Personally, I have my doubts over whether it is a particularly useful tool when it comes to gaining an edge, and I continue to believe that the old-fashioned approach of watching players and getting a feel for their influence and importance is more beneficial.

I am sometimes asked how this can be quantified and, to be brutally honest, I can't give an exact answer.

What I can say is that by looking at the two sets of teams and accounting for home advantage, I get a feel for where the prices should be and I act when the market strongly disagrees with my assessment.

This strategy has been broadly successful over the years and hopefully will continue to be so in the future.

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