How Manchester City and United have changed with Erling Haaland and Erik ten Hag

Has Erling Haaland made Manchester City better? The question might sound crazy. The answer will sound even crazier. It is no.

No player has reached ten, 15 and 20 Premier League goals faster than Haaland. His total is now 21.

Haaland’s goals, though, have not moved City forward. Rather City have stood still. Goals that previously would have been spread among many players are now being scored predominately by one player. The team total, though, is effectively the same.

City paid £51 million to sign Haaland from Dortmund last summer. Let us compare this season with the previous five seasons, in four of which City were champions.

This season City have accumulated 2.3 points per game. Over the previous five seasons they accumulated 2.4 points per game – slightly more but almost the same.

This season City have scored 2.6 goals per game. Over the previous five seasons they scored 2.5 goals per game – slightly fewer but almost the same.

This season City have taken 18 shots per game. Over the previous five seasons they also took 18 shots per game.

City have scored goals and accumulated points effectively at the same rate with Haaland as they did without him.

Across those five previous seasons City needed seven shots on average to score a goal. This season they have also averaged seven shots per goal.

Haaland, of course, has been scoring more rapidly. He has taken just three shots per goal. Other City players this season have taken ten shots per goal. This does not necessarily mean their shooting has been worse than in previous seasons. More likely, they have been shooting from worse positions because most of the opportunities from the best positions have gone to Haaland.

This is understandable. Haaland probably does convert those chances more efficiently than anyone else in the squad could. How many in the world can match him? The bottom line, though, is that City this season have not been better than in previous seasons.

The owners did not sign one of the most sought-after players in the world to maintain results but to improve them. Manager Pep Guardiola has a lot previous for finding his way to a solution to a problem. He could get there again. City could achieve better results with Haaland, but they have not achieved them yet.

On Saturday City will play in a Manchester derby at United. After 17 games United have 35 points, only four fewer than City. In their first season under the management of Erik ten Hag United are averaging 2.1 points per game. This is almost as good as in their golden age under Sir Alex Ferguson.

Ferguson won the Premier League for the first time in 1992-93 and the last time in 2012-13. Across those 21 seasons United averaged 2.2 points per game. In the nine seasons after Ferguson retired United dropped to 1.8 points per game. This is the tenth season. Measured on points per game United have been playing as well as in their glory days. Points per game for them this season could be misleading, though.

There is a general relationship between points gained and goals for and against. You would expect this. Points are awarded depending on the results of games, which are determined by goals for and against.

Across Ferguson’s last 21 seasons United scored 70 per cent of the goals in their games. In the nine seasons after Ferguson retired United scored 61 per cent of the goals in their games. This season they have scored 57 per cent.

In the Ferguson era, and in the post-Ferguson but pre-Ten Hag era, United’s points were normal for their goals scored and conceded. This season United have gained an abnormally high number of points.

This must mean they have tended to score when it mattered and concede when it did not matter. Some pundits might say United found ways to win. It is the sort of thing pundits do say. There is a reason, though, for treating it with caution. It is not a consistent trait among successful teams. Over time points gained and goals for and against tend to move back into sync. This can happen in different ways. Most often it happens by convergence – the worst stats improve and the best stats deteriorate.

On goals scored and goals conceded United this season are close to where they were in other post-Ferguson seasons – though a couple of possible outlier results, heavy defeats at Brentford and City, could conceal a slight improvement in defence. On points gained they are almost back to where they were under Ferguson. How well have they played really? Probably somewhere in between.

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