How defensive deficiencies have led to Leicester struggling at both ends of the pitch

Leicester achieved two top-five finishes in the Premier League and lifted the FA Cup for the first time in their history under Brendan Rodgers, and yet his departure, which came after Saturday’s dismal 2-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, has seemed inevitable for a while.

Only the big six collected more league points across Rodgers' time in the East Midlands. So where did it go wrong for a manager who was among the frontrunners to be the next Manchester United manager less than 18 months ago?

There are similarities to the end of his time at Liverpool, where Rodgers enjoyed notable early success before things fell away sharply. Performances on the pitch and factors off it have given the impression of a manager and a team reaching the end of their natural cycle at Leicester.

It’s hard to quantify the effect of intangible factors, but the atmosphere at the club hasn’t seemed right all season. 

Rodgers, publicly upset by a lack of transfer activity, set the tone by saying 40 points was the target this time around despite most pre-season forecasts putting the Foxes in the top half. 

They will need to show some fighting spirit in the coming weeks, but the Foxes have a lot of players who know they are unlikely to be at the club next season with six first-team players, including the previously influential Youri Tielemans, in the final few months of their contracts.

Wesley Fofana’s protracted departure to Chelsea hung over the club at the start of the season, but his eventual £75 million move was offset only by the £15m summer arrival of Wout Faes.

Harry Souttar and Victor Kristiansen added belated defensive reinforcement in January, but financial fair play considerations have also been looming, meaning that since 2018 only Brighton have a lower net spend of the Premier League ever-presents in that time.

The defensive red flags began to surface last season when, despite finishing eighth, only Southampton and Leeds allowed more expected goals-against than Leicester of the 17 sides not relegated.

Under Rodgers this term they ranked 18th for actual goals and 17th for non-penalty xG conceded. Familiar problems weren’t fixed and the form of Danny Ward, who initially replaced Kasper Schmeichel as the Foxes' number one but has recently dropped to the bench, didn’t help. Only two regular top-flight goalkeepers fare worse than Ward on Opta’s goals prevented metric.

Defensive frailties mean the Foxes have dropped the most points (22) from winning positions this term. Whether that's symptomatic of bad game management from Rodgers or of a lack of squad depth is open to debate, but their +2 goal difference in the first half of matches was seventh-best, while a second-half goal-difference of -12 was the third-worst.

Inconsistency has blighted their campaign. While they possess some top attacking talents, Leicester have looked increasingly reliant on producing occasional moments of brilliance rather than sustained periods of pressure.

They rank ninth for goals scored and 12th for non-penalty xG created. That would normally be enough to stay well clear of danger but it has been inefficiently distributed.

Of the 39 goals scored under Rodgers this term, 16 (42 per cent) came in just four matches and only Arsenal and Manchester City have scored four goals in a game more often. 

The good days have been very good, but, having run cold recently, they need to start creating and converting with much greater regularity to pick up the points required to avoid relegation.

Eight points from 13 post-World Cup games, the worst record of any Premier League club, spelled the end for Rodgers. They faced the third-hardest set of fixtures in that time but their performance against the previously powder-puff Crystal Palace, when they were outshot 31-3, heavily suggested a change in the dugout was required.

Large portions of the Foxes' fanbase have been calling for change and with only three home wins all season, getting the supporters back onside was one of the most compelling reasons to axe Rodgers. 

It didn’t pay off in Tuesday’s ten-man 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa, but they will need everyone pulling in the same direction in upcoming season-defining home clashes with relegation rivals Bournemouth, Wolves, Everton and West Ham.

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