FA Cup semi-final betting reflects Brighton's spectacular progress as well as Red Devils' ropey rearguard

It's FA Cup semi-final weekend and Sunday's Wembley fixture between Brighton and Manchester United, who were dumped out of the Europa League by Sevilla on Thursday, should be a fascinating contest.

The Seagulls were a fine side under Graham Potter but their progress since Roberto De Zerbi arrived has been spectacular. 

Forget labels such as 'underrated', 'surprise packages' or 'overachievers' – Brighton are clear and worthy favourites to beat Manchester United Football Club at a neutral venue this weekend and that status proves they should be taken seriously by any opponents.

Admittedly, you'd expect United's odds to shorten once punters twig that Harry Maguire is suspended (I know that's a low blow and I'll apologise unreservedly when a 37-year-old Maguire rewards Gareth Southgate's unshakeable faith in him by leading England to World Cup glory in 2030).

Whoever lines up in defence for the Red Devils can expect a busy afternoon against De Zerbi's men, who average 15.7 shots per game in the Premier League, behind only Arsenal and Manchester City.

The Citizens kick off the FA Cup action against Sheffield United, who are on the brink of clinching automatic promotion from the Championship. A direct formline through Burnley doesn't give the underdogs much hope as the Clarets, ten points clear of the Blades at the top of the second division,  were tonked 6-0 at City in the cup quarter-finals.

However, this stage of the FA Cup has not treated Pep Guardiola kindly. He has suffered four defeats in five semi-finals with City and one of those losses came against Arsenal in July 2020 when I was wheeled into the operating theatre at half-time to have my appendix removed. "You've got acute appendicitis," the doctor explained. "Er, thanks," I replied. "You've got lovely eyes."

Manchester City's Phil Foden has just returned to action after having his appendix out, which is an omen I can't ignore so I'll be having a small bet on Foden to score first at 13-2.

A semi-final trip to Wembley against the best team in Europe caps a cracking campaign for the Blades under Paul Heckingbottom - or 'Hecky', as he's sweetly referred to in a headline on the club's official website.

Any kind of positive result for the Blades against Pep's treble-chasing juggernaut would be a huge shock, especially as on-loan City starlets James McAtee and Tommy Doyle are ineligible to play against their parent club.

But Hecky's squad has been sprinkled with some fairytale stardust. Exciting young forward Iliman Ndiaye – on loan at Hyde United in the Northern Premier League just three years ago – started for Senegal against England at the 2022 World Cup and scored a brilliant winner against Tottenham in the FA Cup fifth round. 

And the Blades' run to the last four has featured a ridiculous amount of late drama. John Egan struck in the 95th minute to nab a 3-3 draw at Wrexham in the fourth round before Billy Sharp and Sander Berge scored in the 94th and 96th minutes to give them a 3-1 victory in the replay. They were at it again in the quarter-finals, with two goals in the final ten minutes sealing a 3-2 comeback win over Blackburn.

Bet365 offer 4-1 about Sheffield United notching the last goal of the game against City while bettors who prefer to swim against the tide can take 5-6 that no goal is scored after 81 minutes and 59 seconds. Always a fun bet to cheer on, that one …

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