Expert EFL predictions and free football tips from Aaron Ashley

Free football tips, best bets and expert accumulator advice for the weekend's EFL matches.

When to bet

Kick-offs from 3pm Saturday

Best bets

Derby draw no bet
2pts 19-20 Betfair & Paddy Power

Newport
2pts Evs Betfair & Hills

Swindon
2pts 11-8 Hills

Derby v Blackburn

The Championship table makes unpleasant reading for Derby after September’s 12-point deduction, but they have responded positively to the sanction and look overpriced at home to Blackburn.

Wayne Rooney’s Rams could have capitulated after entering administration but it has had the opposite effect on them and last weekend's 1-1 draw at Coventry, who had won their first six home league assignments, took their unbeaten tally to five.

Basement boys Derby are six points adrift of safety but without their punishment would find themselves 15th and within four points of a playoff place.

Rooney has done an excellent job keeping a small group tight-knit and they have lost only three of their opening 14 games, a feat equalled by just five other teams in the second tier.

Derby are also one of only four sides in the Championship still with an unbeaten home record.

Five of their seven games at Pride Park have ended level but that includes draws with playoff contenders Middlesbrough and Luton, while they also claimed the scalp of ninth-placed Stoke.

So with draw-no-bet an obvious safety net, Derby, whose tally of 11 goals conceded is the joint-second best defensive record alongside third-placed West Brom, are worth backing to get the better of a Blackburn side who are flawed by inconsistencies.

Rovers, who are winless in five away league games and have suffered three straight defeats on the road, have a youthful squad and may not be prepared for the fight they face at Pride Park.

Newport v Stevenage

James Rowberry’s tenure as Newport manager started on a high as he guided his new team to a 3-1 win at Bristol Rovers last weekend and his first home game at the helm can also result in victory over Stevenage.

The Exiles had shown signs of progress even before the appointment of Rowberry and should be confident of extending their unbeaten run in League Two to six at the expense of Boro, who have managed just one win from their last 12 attempts.

Stevenage travel to Rodney Parade without a win in four and have endured back-to-back 3-0 defeats on their travels at Oldham and Northampton - they registered just four shots on target across that pair of laboured efforts.

Since claiming victory at Bristol Rovers in August, Alex Revell’s men have failed to win any of their subsequent six starts on the road and have managed only two goals in that period.

Oldham v Swindon

Oldham boast the worst home form in League Two while Swindon have the joint-best away record, so it could pay to keep things simple at Boundary Park.

While the Latics look like relegation candidates, Swindon are shaping as protagonists for promotion and that gulf in class should be evident when the pair lock horns on Saturday.

Oldham have lost five of their seven home league games this season and were outclassed in a 3-1 defeat by 14th-placed Walsall in the most recent of them earlier this month.

Swindon, on the other hand, remain unbeaten on their travels after seven outings. They have collected 17 points from a possible 21 and inflicted one of only two defeats on league leaders Forest Green.

Accumulator

Swansea 4-6, Oxford 4-7, Newport Evs, Swindon 11-8
£1 acca returns £12.48 with Hills

Click here to add Aaron Ashley's EFL acca to your William Hill betslip

First scorer

Kion Etete Northampton v Carlisle
at 5-1 bet365

The Tottenham loanee has been Northampton’s standout performer in recent weeks and his hard work was rewarded with the opening goal in back-to-back wins over Stevenage and Tranmere. With confidence restored, his game could go to a different level and he can get the in-form Cobblers off to a quick start against Carlisle.

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