Improving away form is crucial if Borussia Dortmund are to end a decade of Bayern Munich dominance

It has been a topsy-turvy 2022-23 season in Germany, where Borussia Dortmund are one point clear at the top of the Bundesliga with a genuine chance of ending a ten-season run of Bayern Munich dominance.

A tight title race seemed unimaginable at the winter break, when Bayern were four points clear of Freiburg and nine ahead of sixth-placed Dortmund, who had drifted to 66-1.

But the relentless Bayern machine hasn’t clicked into gear as it usually does in the second half of the season. Instead, disunity on the pitch and in the boardroom means they have handed their rivals repeated opportunities.

Bayern are currently tracking at 69-point pace. Even if they win their last five games they would post 74 points, their lowest total since coming second to Jurgen Klopp’s Dortmund in 2011-12 with 73.

The Black and Yellow have picked up 28 out of 30 possible points to overhaul Bayern after the winter break, prompting the champions to replace manager Julian Nagelsmann with Thomas Tuchel. 

That move paid immediate dividends with a 4-2 win over Dortmund in Tuchel's first game but in recent weeks both clubs have taken turns slipping up when it seemed they had the upper hand.

With Bayern increasingly inconsistent and Dortmund unproven under pressure it’s hard to trust either side in the title race. Despite it being in Dortmund’s hands they are 11-8 underdogs in the betting, with oddsmakers trusting Bayern’s superior underlying numbers even though, as the table shows, the gap between them and BVB has narrowed since the season resumption.

While Bayern come out top in the averages, their stats are increasingly being unevenly accumulated. Irrepressible at their best, they’ve scored four or more goals in nine of their 29 games. 

Since the break, though, last summer's departure of Robert Lewandowski has proved more costly as they have failed to score more than one goal in seven of 14. They’ve kept clean sheets in only one of those games, meaning points have been frittered away.

Dortmund have run a bit hot since January but they’ve been more consistent in creating and converting chances week in, week out.

If Dortmund are to get over the line then their away form, particularly defensively, must improve as they rank bottom-half for goals and expected goals allowed on their travels.

Their run-in looks favourable with away days at Bochum and Augsburg, who are both just above the relegation zone. But they’ve blown leads in recent draws against Schalke and Stuttgart, who are both in the bottom three, and Stuttgart had only ten men for 51 minutes.

On Friday night they are 8-15 to see off local rivals Bochum, who lost 5-1 to Wolfsburg last weekend, and three of their last four games are at home. 

Dortmund have the best home record in the division, dropping just five points all season and their only defeat came on matchday three. Mainz and Wolfsburg, both in the European hunt, could prove awkward visitors but the Westphalia crowd has boosted Dortmund time and again this term.

Bayern’s run-in looks slightly softer with four games against bottom-half sides including home matches against the bottom two. 

They still have to host RB Leipzig, who rank above Dortmund in most expected-points models and are fighting to secure a Champions League spot.

Bookmakers still favour Bayern, who have the superior goal difference, to come through when it matters. Interestingly, though, the German-based data firm Goalimpact give Dortmund the edge. It is in their hands to end Bayern’s decade of dominance – but only if they can hold their nerve and tighten up defensively on the road.

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