Does it matter if Manchester City have title-race experience and Arsenal do not?

Alan Shearer stood beside the pitch, microphone in hand. He was talking before the Premier League game between title-chasing Arsenal and Manchester City and reflecting on his times as a player in the same situation with Blackburn.

He told Prime Video watchers: “We had to learn the hard way the season before we won it because we were inexperienced, we were being chased by Manchester United, and we were chasing them, it was unfamiliar territory for us. But then the season after we were used to that, a little bit more experienced, we managed to hang on, albeit by a little bit of luck in the last game.”

I thought that was what happened. In the Racing & Football Outlook Annual looking ahead to the following season of 1995-96 I wrote:

“Blackburn or Manchester United should win the Premier League, provided they are among the leaders at the beginning of March. The reason is that only those two teams have experience of playing in high-pressure end-of-season games. It might sound like a small thing, something that will make only a slight difference. It is not. Not once in the last 20 years has a team with experience of the run-in lost out in the closing stages to a team without experience of the run-in.”

Newcastle, with players in a title race for the first time, were overtaken on the run-in by Manchester United.

Nearly three decades have passed since then. Has anything changed? I do not think so. It is possible for a team of title-chasing newcomers to beat a team of title-chasing veterans. It is still the least likely possibility.

In recent weeks, admittedly, neither inexperienced Arsenal nor experienced Manchester City have consistently played like champions.

Since the middle of January Arsenal have had a game in hand. At the start of February they led City by five points. Then they lost at Everton, but the following day City lost at Tottenham. The gap remained five points. The next weekend Arsenal drew at home to Brentford and City won at home to Aston Villa. Now the gap was three points. Then City won at Arsenal. City were top on goal difference. Last Saturday Arsenal won at Aston Villa before City drew at Nottingham Forest.

So today Arsenal lead by two points. Next Wednesday they will play their game in hand, at home to Everton. By next Thursday they could be leading by eight points or trailing by one point.

Naturally the first would put them in a much stronger position than the second. Looking back over what is now almost 50 seasons I still cannot find an example of teams who were close together going into the final stages where a team without experience of the run-in went on to win the title beating a team with experience of the run-in.

Obviously that conclusion is subjective. What counts as close together? I went by how I remember things seeming at the time. When do the final stages begin? I would usually say early March but this season it will be later because of the break for the World Cup in November and December.

Leicester won the title in 2015-16 without experience of the run-in. The previous season in the middle of April they were bottom. The season before that they were in the Championship.

When Leicester won the Premier League, though, a lot of things that could go right went right for them, and a lot of things that could go wrong went wrong for others.  And one of those was that all of the teams with experience of the title race had slow seasons and dropped way off the pace. By early March, Manchester City were ten points behind Leicester. Others were further adrift.

Leicester’s closest challengers were Tottenham and Arsenal. They are bigger clubs with higher expectations but neither of them had players familiar with the pressure of a Premier League title race. You might count Leicester as an exception to my rule. If you do, it is only one. There are many more affirmations. Here are some.

In 2018-19 Manchester City narrowly retained the title, beating Liverpool who had a group of players challenging for the first time. In 2013-14 a differently experienced City overcame a differently inexperienced Liverpool. In 2008-09 Manchester United completed a hat-trick of titles by holding off an even earlier version of Liverpool. In 1999-2000 United had pulled away from a fading Leeds. And then we are almost back to United and Newcastle. Or United and Blackburn.

Must a team have been there and not done it before they can go there and do it? I will not say always but I will say usually. Manchester City this season have not often played like the team who won the Premier League in four of the previous five seasons. But I still feel that unless Arsenal pull clear quickly – or Manchester United catch and overtake both of them – City’s course-and-distance knowledge will tell eventually. Do not take my word for it, though. Ask Alan Shearer.

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