Dan Childs: free football tips for Saturday's EFL games

Dan Childs's free football tips for Saturday's EFL games, including Middlesbrough v West Brom, Bolton Wanderers v Rochdale, AFC Wimbledon v Portsmouth & Walsall v Cheltenham Town.

When to bet

Kick-offs 3pm Saturday

Best bets

West Brom
3pts 21-20 Betfred, Coral
Bolton draw no bet
3pts 11-10bet365
Wimbledon or draw double chance
3pts 4-5 BoyleSports, Hills
Cheltenham draw no bet
2pts 11-10 general

Verdicts

Middlesbrough v West Brom

West Brom have had a fortnight to savour life at the Sky Bet Championship summit and they can hold on to top spot with victory at Middlesbrough.

By the end of last season, seven points separated fourth-placed Albion from Boro in seventh, but the clubs have gone in different directions and Boro look in danger of being dragged into a relegation battle.

Middlesbrough have spent a lot of money chasing a return to the Premier League but they are operating with a more modest budget this season and it has proved difficult for rookie manager Jonathan Woodgate to build a competitive squad. Boro have won just two of their 11 games and looked a poor side when losing 2-1 at Birmingham last time out.

It took a late strike from 19-year-old Blues midfielder Odin Bailey to settle the contest but the scoreline flattered the visitors, who lost the shot count 26 to five.

Woodgate is well aware of his team's shortcomings and has been brutally honest in post-match interviews but it is hard to see where any improvement will come from.

They played with plenty of endeavour at St Andrew's but couldn't cope with a side who moved the ball much better than them. And it gets tougher against West Brom, who are genuine top-two contenders.

The Baggies played a blinder in the loan market, picking up attacking midfielder Matheus Pereira and winger Grady Diangana on season-long deals, and powerful winger Matt Phillips is back to his best after an injury-interrupted 2018-19.

They are odds-on with some firms to win promotion and look solid favourites to gain three points at the Riverside.

Bolton Wanderers v Rochdale

Bolton have not won since March but their 20-match barren run could some to an end against Rochdale.

The Trotters are the only EFL club still awaiting their first win of the season but performances have been steadily improving since a takeover went through in August.

In the early part of the season they had to rely heavily on academy players and had some tough times, losing four matches by a five-goal margin. But the landscape changed quickly with the recruitment of several experienced players under new manager Keith Hill.

Bolton have drawn three of their last four league games and shaded a 0-0 draw at home to Blackpool 12 days ago.

A season-high crowd of 14,003 turned out for that contest and increasing enthusiasm from the stands could soon be rewarded.

Rochdale won 5-2 at home to a young Bolton side in the EFL Cup in August but know they will be in for a much stiffer test.

They won 2-1 at home to Accrington last Saturday – ending an eight-match winless sequence – but it was a fortunate result after they had lost the shot count 28 to nine.

Dale boss Brian Barry-Murphy has been coping with a long list of absentees and his struggling side could suffer a fourth successive away league defeat.

AFC Wimbledon v Portsmouth

Kenny Jackett is coming under pressure in the Portsmouth dugout and his team may struggle to justify favouritism at Wimbledon.

Pompey are expected to be among the front-runners for promotion in Sky Bet League One but have been stuck in the bottom half for two months.

Forward Ronan Curtis – a key player last term – has been nowhere near his best and Jamal Lowe, Portsmouth's top scorer last term with 15 goals, hasn't been replaced since he left for Wigan.

Portsmouth have lacked a cutting edge and created few clear-cut chances when drawing 0-0 at home to Gillingham last Saturday.

Gillingham were happy to defend for large parts of the game but Wimbledon are likely to be more positive as they target a third successive victory.

The Wombles are unbeaten in four games under caretaker manager Glyn Hodges and possess an obvious goal-threat with on-loan striker Marcus Forss netting seven goals in six league appearances.

They are a team on the up and look overpriced to take at least a point.

Walsall v Cheltenham Town

Sixth-placed Cheltenham are one of the surprise names in the Sky Bet League Two promotion mix but there has been nothing fortunate about their progress which could be maintained with a victory at struggling Walsall.

Michael Duff's Robins have lost just two of 12 league matches and their goal difference is the best in the division.

They are unbeaten in seven matches and look a solid draw-no-bet wager against the Saddlers, who have lost their last two games and are the lowest scorers in the division.