Congested table means six-pointers will be even more crucial than usual in relegation scrap

Just six points separate the bottom nine teams in the Premier League, setting up one of the tightest relegation battles in recent history. 

At this stage of two of the last four seasons at least one team was cut adrift at the foot of the table on only 11 points, and the 21 points amassed by bottom club Bournemouth is the highest total since 2010-11, meaning all three drop-zone spots are well and truly open.

The average number of points needed to finish 17th and stay up in the last five seasons has been 37.2 and spread-betting firms expect all nine survival contenders to end up with 42 points or fewer.

That in turn means a convincing case can be made for any of them to finish in the bottom three if they run cold for form, luck or injuries when it matters most.

All of the bottom nine clubs are single-figure prices for the drop, although there is a significant gap between West Ham, Leicester, Wolves and Crystal Palace, who are all bigger than 5-1, and the other five sides, who are 2-1 or shorter to go down. 

Let’s put the bigger-priced contenders under the microscope. With things so tight in the bottom half of the standings, the remaining 24 games they play against each other will be pivotal and that is probably the main reason Palace are outsiders of the nine in most firms’ relegation betting.

Palace sinking

The Eagles, 12th in the table since gameweek 19, have slowly been reeled closer to the bottom three after a nine-match winless run. 

Palace have battled gamely against a lot of the big guns but things could get worse for them with Manchester City, Brighton and Arsenal up next in the schedule.

They ranked in the top six for most actual and underlying defensive metrics last season but have slipped to mid-pack this term while their attacking numbers have gone from slightly below average to outright bad.

That is concerning, especially considering that Patrick Vieira couldn’t arrest a slump in his final season at Nice before being sacked by the Ligue 1 club. The good news is that eight of Palace's final ten games are against teams in the bottom eight, giving them more fixtures in which they will be a shorter price to bank points than their rivals.

Vieira's side have picked up 16 points from eight such fixtures this season – the best record in the relegation contenders ‘mini league’ – but they are too reliant on set-pieces, having scored only 12 goals from open play all season, fewer than every Premier League team except Everton. 

That lack of firepower minimises Palace's margin for error and if goals run dry when the pressure is greatest then they will be handing points to their nearest survival rivals. Five of those relegation ‘six-pointers’ are at Selhurst Park, which should help, provided their fans stay onside.

Slow-starting Hammers

West Ham are sixth-favourites to go down despite being only one point above the safety line and that is partly explained by their position as a borderline top-half side in some expected-points tables.

But their underlying numbers have been better than their real ones for most of the season and they continue to struggle, so what is going on?

The Hammers are the only side who haven’t scored a league goal in the opening 15 minutes of a game and only two teams take fewer shots during that opening period. 

Only one top-flight side have a later average time of first goal scored so you can see why some Hammers supporters are turning on manager David Moyes for being too passive.

West Ham rank 12th for expected-goal difference per 90 minutes when their games are level (according to date from Understat), which is fine although only marginally ahead of a lot of the other relegation candidates.

Moyes's men rank third for xG difference when trailing by one goal and only Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool have created chances more regularly when they are pushing for an equaliser. 

The problem is that the Hammers have converted an xG of 14.2 in those situations into only six goals, which is down to a combination of bad luck and bad execution, but also fuels the argument that they need to take the handbrake off earlier.

West Ham should have more points on the board but those opportunities are gone and they desperately need to have their shooting boots on in their next two games at home to Aston Villa and Southampton. Picking up decent points in those two is vital otherwise things could get hairy as they have the joint-worst away record in the division and four of their final five home games are against the top six. 

Free-scoring Foxes

Leicester continued their Jekyll-and-Hyde form by losing to Southampton last weekend. The Foxes were wasteful in front of goal but are still averaging 1.44 goals per game. No side scoring that regularly have gone down in the last ten Premier League seasons. Wigan, who scored 1.24 goals per game in 2012-13, were the most prolific relegated team during that period.

Foxes fans will be praying that James Maddison stays healthy as, if they keep scoring at their present rate, they will be hopeful of picking up three points on their good days more often than those around them.

Wolves are now eighth in the relegation betting having picked up 17 points in 11 games since the World Cup. Only six teams in the entire division have earned more points since Julen Lopetegui took charge at Molineux.

They have run hot during that run, conceding just 11 goals from an xG allowed of 17.6 and last Saturday’s 1-0 win over Spurs epitomised that trend. Wolves were outshot 11-0 in the first half but hung on until the break when Lopetegui made a couple of decisive substitutions and changed formation. 

They have quality, particularly in midfield, and the new boss looks better placed to maximise it although, unlike Leicester, their chance-creation remains worryingly low.

Survival scrap

There’s a gap in the betting to 2-1 Nottingham Forest, who have picked up 22 points in their last 17 games after a nightmare start while their vast array of summer signings gelled. They are unbeaten at home in their last nine, taking four points off Manchester City and Liverpool, but that form will be further tested as four of their final six fixtures at the City Ground are against teams fighting for Champions League qualification.

Only Bournemouth have picked up fewer points than Leeds since the World Cup. The Elland Road outfit did not have a permanent manager for part of that period and it remains to be seen how much of a ‘bounce’ new boss Javi Gracia will bring.

Bournemouth have been the worst side on underlying numbers for most of the season and owe their current points tally to a huge overperformance in the opening quarter of the campaign. It’s hard to see them staying up although they are close enough to escape if they run hot again down the stretch and they are the only side to have ticked off both games against the top two.

The fixture list is less kind for Southampton, who have picked up two wins in their last three since the departure of Nathan Jones, but still have to play all of the current top nine in their remaining 13 matches.

Everton’s tally of 1.17 points per game and xG difference per game of -0.2 under Sean Dyche are both better than their levels before his arrival, which were 0.75 and -0.6. However, having played a game more than most of their rivals, they face an uphill task to survive. 

They beat Arsenal at Goodison Park in Dyche’s first game and will need the Everton faithful to inspire them to more home upsets as they have only one home game left against a bottom-half team. The Toffees have just four remaining fixtures against their fellow strugglers, and three of those are on the road.

The current bottom three, Everton, Southampton and Bournemouth, seem to have the hardest task based on performances so far and fixtures to come. But there will be surprises and the margins in this season's relegation battle are tight, so the only guarantee is that things will change quickly, and handling the pressure in the games the survival rivals play against each other will be key.

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport