Card counts can go up in Premier League relegation battles as season nears end

The stakes are rising. Every Premier League team below Chelsea will be anxiously looking down or up. Nine out of 20 teams are in real danger of relegation – almost half of them.

With so many teams at risk it is not surprising that there are a lot of so-called relegation six-pointers. Last weekend there were three, this weekend there will be another two.

Leicester will kick off against Bournemouth with both teams below the relegation line – unless Manchester United win by a record top division score earlier against Everton.

With each game that passes every point gained or lost becomes more important. And more often players cross a disciplinary line.

I studied cards in games between teams who finished in the bottom three, the relegation places. I did so for every season since 1995-96 except for 2019-20, which was disrupted by Covid.

Finishing in the bottom three is not necessarily the same as being in the bottom three before a season is over, but games between the first set of teams may give us an inkling of what happens in games between the second set of teams.

In many bookings markets ten points are awarded for each yellow card and 25 points for each red card. For games between teams who would finish in the bottom three the average make-up was 34 between August and March. It was 40 in April and 45 in May.

Last weekend the make-up was 80 for Nottingham Forest v Wolves and 70 for Crystal Palace v Leicester, although only 20 for West Ham v Southampton.

The chance of a high cards total between Leicester and Bournemouth is greater today than it would have been earlier in the season. The bookings points make-up was only 30 when the pair met in Bournemouth in October.

Similar things can be said about tomorrow’s game between Leeds and Crystal Palace. Leeds are 13th and Palace 12th but they are only two and three points above the relegation line. In previous seasons games between teams who would finish in those positions also generated more cards in April and May than in earlier months, though the increases were not so pronounced.

Bookings always likely when Celtic play Rangers

On the subject of cards, today in the Scottish Premiership there is an Old Firm derby.

Celtic and Rangers are only two of 12 clubs in the Premiership. They represent one-sixth of the membership. Their wages bills typically account for about two-thirds of the Premiership total.

Celtic and Rangers are on a different level from all other Scottish clubs off the pitch, and it shows on the pitch. Almost four decades have passed since anybody else won the Premiership.

And of course there is a fierce and much older rivalry between Celtic and Rangers. It can spill over into cards.

Bookings totals are higher when Celtic and Rangers play each other than when they play anybody else. In markets where each yellow counts as ten points and each red as 25 points the average make-up in Premiership Old Firm derbies since the start of season 2000-01 has been 58 points.

There were times when bookings levels, at least, seemed to be coming down. Afterwards they went up again. In 2003-04, for example, the average bookings makeups was just 32. The next season it was 62. In 2006-07 the average bookings makeup was 42. The following season it was 85.

This season in the Premiership there have been make-ups of 60 and 20. Today expectations should probably be close to 60.

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