Mark Hughes was blamed for things that went wrong rather than anything he did

Southampton sacked manager Mark Hughes on Monday. Why? I decided to investigate. Hughes had said the team were playing well but getting bad results.

I looked at three sets of expected goals stats for each of Southampton’s first 14 Premier League games. Expected goals stats are supposed to give an indication of how many goals a team would normally score and concede with the same number of shots for and against and from the same positions.

In those first 14 games Southampton scored 12 goals and conceded 26. The expected totals ranged from 17 to 20 goals for and 21 to 23 goals against. With the same play Southampton could have scored more goals and conceded fewer.

How might they have changed results? I looked at the expected goals for individual games, working out what they implied in each game for the chance of Southampton winning, drawing and losing.

From those 14 games Southampton got one win, six draws and seven defeats, giving them nine points. Each set of expected goals stats suggested the fairest outcome would have been four wins, four draws and six defeats, giving 16 points.

Sixteen points instead of nine would have lifted Southampton from 18th, just below the relegation line, to 12th, close to mid-table.

After Hughes’s last game, a 2-2 draw with Manchester United, he said: “When you look at our performance and the table, we are not where we want to be.” Or, he could fairly have added, where they should have been.

After Southampton’s previous Premier League fixture, a 3-2 defeat to Fulham, Hughes said: “There have been five or six games when we have been the better team, more dominant, had more shots but end up without the points.”

Before a ball had been kicked Sporting Index’s spread for Southampton points this season was 43-44.5. The midpoint anticipated 16 points after 14 games – what Southampton’s play deserved but more than it got.

So why did the owners sack Hughes? They would say they sacked him because of bad results. Results were bad. But Hughes should not have been blamed for them.

A manager’s job is to get the best out of their players. Hughes did. But he was sacked all the same because the performances the players were capable of did not get the rewards they deserved. How many other managers are sacked for that reason? Perhaps one day Hughes’s replacement, Ralph Hasenhuttl, will be.

It is not over until it is over

Two of my tips this season lost in the 90th minute or added time. One became no bet instead of a winner. Another won. A lot can happen near the end of a football match.

It all counts.

Premier League referees add four minutes on average to a second half. So the period from the start of the 90th minute until the final whistle lasts on average for five minutes.

I counted goals scored during that period in Premier and Football League games from the last 20 seasons, 1998-99 to 2017-18. In one game out of every seven there was at least one goal.

In one game out of 14 the result changed. That is to say, a win for one team became a draw or a win for the other team, or a draw became a win for some team. On a typical weekend with a full programme of Premier and Football League fixtures there will be three in which the result changes at the death.

I also counted corners and cards from the start of the 90th minute until full time in Premier League games from the last 12 seasons, 2006-07 to 2017-18.

In two games out of every seven there was a card, or cards. There are many total and handicap markets you can bet on. So in two Premier League games out of every seven, in all likelihood, there will be a card near the end that turns some bets from winners into losers and other bets from losers into winners.

Late corners were even more common. In two games out of every five there was at least one corner between the start of the 90th minute and the final whistle.

Same cause but different effects

Saddam Hussein was captured in December 2003. At first US Treasury bonds rose. Bloomberg reported that US Treasury bonds had risen because Saddam had been captured. Within half an hour US Treasury bonds had fallen. Then Bloomberg reported that US Treasury bonds had fallen because Saddam had been captured.

Financial reporters are not the only ones who can make the same facts fit entirely different outcomes.

When Manchester United concede the first goal and do not win we are told they cannot afford to start games slowly. When United concede the first goal and win we are told it does not matter if they start games slowly because for them everything is still possible.

When Liverpool win this season we are told they do not have to score as many goals as last season – they can rely on a much-improved defence. When Liverpool do not win we are told they need to start scoring more goals again – they cannot rely on a much-improved defence.

When Chelsea win we are told Jorginho was the source of everything good that they did with the ball. When Chelsea do not win we are told that Jorginho was to blame for everything bad they did without the ball.

When Paris Saint-Germain beat an English team we are told they are helped by playing so many easy games in the French league – they stay fresh. When Paris Saint-Germain lose to an English team we are told they are hindered by playing so many easy games in the French league – they lack sharpness.

Good luck

Napoleon’s critics said he won battles by luck. Napoleon said: “I would rather have a general who was lucky than one who was good.”

It was a witty response. And it was perfectly valid as hindsight. But it was no use to himself or anyone else if they wanted foresight. Nobody could tell whether a general would be lucky in the future, only whether they had been lucky in the past. One does not imply the other.

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