Manchester United stories had same beginning but totally different endings

People want a story in which the characters get what they deserve. If a football team win it must be because they did something right for which they should be praised, and if they lose it must be because they did something wrong for which they should be blamed.

Sometimes these stories provide the best explanation for what happened. Sometimes they do not.

Consider two stories about Manchester United.

United scored twice in the last five minutes to come from behind and beat Juventus. Reporters said United won because they showed grit – or determination, or resilience, or a never-say-die spirit, or something else that means the same. Readers, by and large, agreed. It was an explanation that fitted the facts. Other explanations did too but none was so satisfying.

Morality tales have been popular for a long time. They must speak to something ingrained in the human psyche. A psychologist might be able to tell us what it is. Often, though, actors in a real-life drama do not get what they deserve.

Juventus had played better than United. Near the end, though, they led by only one goal. United manager Jose Mourinho sent on substitutes. He asked his players to try to get the ball and themselves forward more often.

Mourinho and United did only what they have done in other games when they were behind. They did what every manager and team does when they are losing and time is running out. Sometimes it works but usually it does not.

For United in Turin it did work. They took two free kicks and scored two goals. One was delightfully struck, the other went in after a scramble.

Mourinho was praised for United’s win over Juventus. He had done the same thing in other games that United lost, and for those defeats he was blamed.

An unpopular but better explanation for United beating Juventus was that they had won a game in which they were the worse team. Sometimes that will happen but usually it will not.

When I am thinking about a team’s performance I try to imagine what I would have made of it if it had been rewarded with a different result. How would I have felt if they had played the same way but lost instead of won? What today would have been a fair result? And how does the answer compare with the answers from previous games?

You are unlikely to have an advantage over the odds for the next game when a team have been getting the results they deserved. You might if they have not.

Four days after United won away to Juventus they lost away to Manchester City. In that game too they trailed by one goal near the end. They tried to force a goal – ideally goals – but could not. In fact they conceded another goal. United had never looked like scoring again – but then they had never looked like scoring earlier in the match before they gained and converted a penalty.

Reporters said United had been outclassed by City. Readers generally agreed. The most popular explanation was also the best. United had lost a game in which they were the worse team. This time the morality tales were right.

One method of communication used for two purposes

Watching the start of a PBS documentary about predictions I realised there are two types of television programme about predictions. Those that say making good predictions is easy and those that say making good predictions is hard. The same goes for books and essays.

I pay more attention to the second type. They are telling the truth. This programme started out like one of the first type but ended up as one of the second type.

Then I realised there are two types of some other things as well.

For instance, there are two types of people who quote statistics. People who are trying to get at the truth and people who are trying to make an impression. I prefer the first type. And you can usually tell which is which.

The second type sound better. You hear them on the television or radio, read them in a newspaper or magazine article, and you say: “Wow, what a great stat.” The first type are more likely to explain why something happened, and therefore what might happen next.

The same goes for words as for numbers. There are two ways in which people use words – to try to get at the truth or to try to get what they want. You can usually tell which it is just by listening.

We all spend some time in the second group. Some people spend all their time in it. But other people spend differing amounts of time in the first group. You can normally tell when they are there. They might not be right, but I give more attention to them because they are more likely to be right.

The thin line separating success from failure

England scored twice in eight minutes to come from behind and beat Croatia. With those goals they finished top of their Nations League group and qualified for the semi-finals. Without them they would have finished bottom and been relegated.

What a difference eight minutes can make. How differently England fans might have felt if something else had happened in them.

England played four games in Nations League Group A4. Eight minutes out of six hours of football was the difference between success and failure.

What happened in them, though, told us little if anything about the quality of the England team. Even in those eight minutes England could have played as well and not scored. Or got only one goal. A score draw would have left them in last place.

My point is that England could effectively have played the same way and finished either top of their group or bottom. And how different reactions would have been if they had finished bottom.

Wayne Rooney said some former England internationals are jealous of manager Gareth Southgate and his players, who in July reached the World Cup semi-finals.

They would be less than human if they did not feel: “That should have been me. I was as good as the player who is now in my position. I played in an England team that was as good as this one. But by fine margins we failed and I got nothing but dog’s abuse.” That is football. That is life.

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