Absence of Nick Pope leaves big gloves to fill for Newcastle's Loris Karius

Nick Pope has never played in a major cup final in his senior career and the England international was just seven years old the last time that his club Newcastle were in a Wembley showpiece.

The 30-year-old was all set to tick off that achievement on Sunday, though, having helped the Magpies reach this season's EFL Cup final against Manchester United. However, a rush of blood to the head in last weekend’s 2-0 Premier League defeat to Liverpool saw Pope sent off for handling the ball outside the area, meaning he is suspended for Sunday's decider.

Losing Pope poses a real headache for Toon boss Eddie Howe; not just because he is now shorn of one of the cornerstones of his defence but also as circumstances mean the choice as to who replaces Pope isn't straightforward.

Martin Dubravka, Newcastle’s number two, would normally be the next cab off the rank but the Slovak was loaned out to fellow finalists United earlier in the season and made two EFL Cup appearances for the Red Devils before he was recalled. Meanwhile, the Magpies' third-choice keeper, Karl Darlow, who has turned out for the Toon on 100 occasions including in their 2-1 win over Tranmere in the second round of the competition, is on loan at Hull.

The responsibility for goalkeeping duties in Newcastle’s first cup final since the 1999 FA Cup final will likely therefore fall on former Liverpool stopper Loris Karius, who has not played a competitive senior match in over two years.

The 29-year-old signed for the Magpies to little fanfare in September and he hasn't featured in a matchday squad in the last two months. 

His last appearance for an English club was the disastrous 2018 Champions League final for Liverpool, where Karius made a pair of calamitous errors that all but handed the trophy to Real Madrid. The German never played for the Reds again, turning out for Besiktas and Union Berlin before heading to St James' Park.

Covering Karius on Newcastle's bench will be Mark Gillespie, a goalkeeper with even less recent experience than the German.

Newcastle born and bred, Gillespie was released by Newcastle at 16 but re-signed for the club three years ago after spells at Carlisle, Walsall and Motherwell.

Gillespie has played three competitive games for Newcastle, all in their 2020-21 EFL Cup campaign, the highlight of which was some shootout heroics in a victory over Newport County.   

So having expected a fully-fledged England goalkeeper with 12 clean sheets to his name to be in net at Wembley, the hopes of Newcastle fans now rest on two men who have played the grand total of eight competitive matches between them since the Coronavirus pandemic.

His absence has understandably had an effect on the betting markets for Sunday's final. Paddy Power's Emmet O'Keefe said: "Newcastle opened up at 11-10 to win the trophy after the semi-finals but drifted out to as big 6-4 on Saturday night before settling at 5-4."

And it was a similar story in the firm's 90-minutes market with Newcastle opening up at 9-5 but they are now 23-10.

Karius seems likely to be given the nod, but what do Newcastle need him to replace?

Pope has been a standout performer for the Toon this season, making his £10 million transfer fee look like one of the best pieces of business conducted by the Magpies’ new owners, and of any club in the Premier League for that matter.

He has been an integral part of the best defence in the Premier League and boasts a save percentage of 79.7, the highest of any goalkeeper to play more than 15 top-flight games this term.

His save percentage in five EFL Cup games is even higher at a whopping 91.7 per cent, and he saved three penalties in their third-round shootout win over Crystal Palace

Of keepers who have played more than 15 times in the Premier League this season, only Alisson, Bernd Leno and David Raya have a better post-shot expected-goals tally - the difference between the expected-goals of the shots faced by a goalkeeper and the amount of goals they actually concede - than Pope (2.2).

Comparisons with Karius are difficult given the small sample size available because of the German's scarce playing time. 

The 2017-18 season is perhaps the best comparison point. Karius recorded a save percentage of 73.3 and a post-shot expected-goals tally of -0.7 in 19 Premier League games and a save percentage of 69.0 and a post-shot expected-goals tally of -1 in 13 Champions League games for Liverpool. Numbers that fall short of Pope's this term.

Put simply, this shows that the Magpies are having to replace a goalkeeper who is statistically above average in most categories with one who is not.

Pope's dismissal last weekend may seem like a freak occurrence but there was always a chance that at some point this season he would make a mistake given how often he is called on to play sweeper keeper. 

Newcastle play a high defensive line, but their first-choice back four of Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Fabian Schar and Kieran Trippier is not blessed with natural pace. To counter this, Pope often turns into a fifth defender, sweeping up balls over the top with regularity.

The Newcastle stopper’s 2.26 defensive actions outside of the penalty area per game are comfortably the highest in the top flight. By comparison Karius recorded a figure of 1.43 in the same metric for Liverpool in 2017-18.

Up against Marcus Rashford, arguably the most dangerous forward in English football at present, Howe will need to devise a plan to stop the Red Devils’ forward running behind his defence and that may involve Karius being more proactive off his line than he was for Liverpool.

Newcastle’s rise from mediocrity to challengers has been meteoric this season. And as they seek their first piece of silverware since 1969 on Sunday, they may need a similar transformation from a keeper with big gloves to fill.

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