Super Bowl LVIII predictions and 2023 NFL season preview: Hurts can power Eagles to go one better

Best bets for Super Bowl LVIII

Philadelphia Eagles
2pts 8-1 general

Cincinnati Bengals
1pt each-way 11-1 Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes

Atlanta Falcons
0.5pt each-way 80-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

2023 NFL season preview

When the Kansas City Chiefs raise their Super Bowl LVII banner at Arrowhead on the opening night of the new NFL season, they would do well to remember how easily that banner could have been flying in Philadelphia instead.

The Chiefs were trading at odds of 33-10 to win Super Bowl 57 when trailing the Philadelphia Eagles by ten points at half-time. Teams with a lead of ten or more points at the Super Bowl interval had gone on to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy on 26 of the previous 27 occasions, but not on that night in Arizona. 

It took a minor miracle for the Chiefs to turn that game around and bookmakers fancy them to do something similar this season, making them favourites for Super Bowl glory in Paradise, Nevada.

However, only eight teams have won back-to-back Super Bowls and, with Kansas City in a hyper-competitive AFC, odds of 6-1 about a third title in five years for the Chiefs are unappealing.

Best bet for Super Bowl LVIII

Philadelphia Eagles

Teams getting back to a Super Bowl after losing the previous year are nearly as rare as repeat champions but, if there is one city built to handle a tough loss, it's Philadelphia.

The Eagles may seem a little short at 8-1 but nine of the last ten Super Bowl champions have started the season priced at 12-1 or shorter and they have one significant advantage over the Chiefs: being in the NFC. 

Only four of the top 12 in the outright betting represent the NFC and none of the Eagles’ conference rivals are as well put together as Philly. 

Had Patrick Mahomes not pulled off the unthinkable, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts would almost certainly have been Super Bowl MVP after a statement performance at the end of a breakout season. 

Philadelphia have put Hurts in a position to succeed again, assembling the highest-ranked offensive line in football to protect him, retaining a top-class receiving core and revamping their running-back stable by adding D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny. 

The Eagles excel in the trenches on both sides of the ball and defensive rookie of the year favourite Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith join a deep defensive line who recorded an incredible 70 sacks. 

A defence giving up the fewest yards per game on average last season has seen a change in coordinator but hiring Sean Desai, who runs a similar scheme to his predecessor Jonathan Gannon, should facilitate a smooth transition.

The Eagles went 14-3 in the 2022 regular season and, even with a harder schedule this year, are projected to have in the region of 13 wins. That would see them go close to being the NFC’s number-one seed again and they are in a strong position to erase the memory of their Super Bowl loss.

Next best bet

Cincinnati Bengals

If the Eagles need any advice on how to get over Super Bowl heartache, they need look no further than the Cincinnati Bengals.

Having lost to the LA Rams in Super Bowl 56, the Bengals were within sight of a return trip, only to lose 23-20 to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow nearly got the better of Mahomes in a season where he tied the Chiefs quarterback for passer rating and was second only to Mahomes (41) in passing touchdowns, with 35. 

Burrow may end up surpassing Mahomes if he continues his year-on-year improvement and he isn’t the only Bengals star with scope for improvement. The Bengals, under Zac Taylor,  went 10-6 in 2022 and 12-4 last year – both records good enough to win the AFC North.

There are few signs of Cincy’s upward trajectory changing course, particularly with the same coaching group and dynamic receiving core returning. 

The defence is sneaky good, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game (20.1) last season and boasting the 11th-best defensive line. And the Bengals continue to address their previous biggest flaw, the offensive line, adding Orlando Brown to protect Burrow. 

After so many years of being the butt of jokes, the Bengals are a well-rounded and well-coached franchise who mean business.

Best Super Bowl LVIII outsider

Atlanta Falcons

Big-price Super Bowl winners have been few and far between recently but a nibble of the 80-1 on offer for the Atlanta Falcons to end five losing seasons in style is tempting as the Dirty Birds are employing an effective offensive system.

Head coach Arthur Smith’s throwback scheme is based on a strong offensive line and a good collection of running backs, led by exciting rookie Bijan Robinson, and those tactics help mitigate some of the doubts around second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder.

Eight new signings should fix an ineffective defence on a team who were competitive last year, despite a 7-10 record, with eight of their losses coming by one score.

The Falcons are improving and have been given a leg up with the easiest schedule in the NFL. They could top a low-quality NFC South in a conference in which teams can come from nowhere to challenge.

Don't miss Wednesday's Racing Post newspaper for a bumper NFL package, including a guide to every division and betting advice for the ante-post special markets.