NFL playoffs preview: Free picks and analysis for the road to Super Bowl LV

Free NFL picks, best bets and analysis for the road to Super Bowl LV in the 2020-21 NFL playoffs.

Best bet

Buffalo Bills
1pt 7-1 general

Already advised

Seattle Seahawks
2pts e-w 20-1
Advised by Andrew Wilsher, September 10

Pittsburgh Steelers
2pts e-w 25-1
Advised by Andrew Wilsher, September 10

Analysis

It has been an unusual NFL season as expected and it could yet produce an even more outlandish finish - the Buffalo Bills winning the Super Bowl for the first time.

The Bills famously lost four consecutive Super Bowls from 1990 to 1993 and have never been back since, but they are one of the few sides in the expanded 14-team playoff field who look strong on both sides of the ball and no one will be keen to face them in the playoffs.

The Bills have qualified for the post-season for the third time in four years and they are able to attack the playoffs from a stronger launching point now New England's 11-year monopoly of the AFC East title has ended.

Buffalo ended the season on a six-game winning streak that would have been ten except for Kyler Murray's incredible Hail Murray pass that gave Arizona a last-play 43-yard touchdown in November.

Quarterback Josh Allen is the most improved player in the league, head coach Sean McDermott is one of the smartest thinkers in the game and the Bills also have defensive strength with defensive tackle Ed Oliver and cornerback Tre'Davious White leading the way.

Super Bowl champions Kansas City are hard to pass over after they secured the top seed but they have been relying on miracles from quarterback Patrick Mahomes lately even though he remains capable of providing them seemingly at will.

The 14-2 Chiefs won 26-17 at Buffalo to spark a ten-game winning run that was only ended when they played their back-ups in Week 17 but they remain suspect defensively.

Kansas City are the only AFC team to get a first-round bye in the new-look playoffs but a two-week break for their top stars could even bring rustiness into play when they get back to the action next week.

Pittsburgh, one of our pre-season tips, should make the next round at least given opponents Cleveland have major Covid-19 issues but the Steelers need to rediscover their early-season form having lost four of their last five games after an 11-0 start.

The Titans and Colts also look short of the required standard, but Baltimore should be able to give anyone a proper test.

In the NFC, the Saints are going strong for our ante-post picks. There are two negatives for their title prospects now - one is whether QB Drew Brees has fully recovered from his serious ribs injury and the other is that they are now likely to have to travel to a frozen Lambeau Field to take on the revitalised Packers.

The buzz in the NFC surrounds Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay, the pre-season gambles who have had some ups and downs, losing to the Rams, Chiefs and Saints, but they have a puncher's chance against anyone.

Washington and Chicago look set for first-round exits but the winners of the Rams and Seahawks clash on Saturday would have a live chance of scoring an upset in the divisional round.

Bookmakers adjusting to new normal

Home advantage just about disappeared in the NFL this season with home teams going 127-128-1 overall - or 127-125-1 if you discount the three home games San Francisco lost when they were forced to play on neutral territory in Arizona.

Many will attribute that to the majority of games being played behind closed doors or with a minimal number of fans allowed in, although home advantage had been in decline previously and the record was only 132-123-1 in 2019 when stadiums were full.

Three of this weekend's six games - those in Seattle, Washington and Pittsburgh - will be played with no fans in the ground, while New Orleans will host 3,000, Buffalo can admit 6,772 and the biggest attendance by far will be at Tennessee, who can have 14,500 fans.

2020 was the highest-scoring NFL regular season ever with 12,692 points scored at an average of 49.58 per game, but bookmakers are still right on top of the trend with 126 games going over the total points line and 125 going under with five ties.

Underdog backers did far better than favourite followers with underdogs covering in 55.5 per cent of games.

Pre-season odds of playoff teams: 6 Kansas City, 13-2 Baltimore, 12 New Orleans, 14 Tampa Bay, 20 Seattle, 25 Indianapolis, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, 33 Tennessee, Green Bay, 40 Cleveland, LA Rams, 50 Chicago, 150 Washington.

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