Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs betting tips and NFL predictions

Free American football tips, best bets and analysis for Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event & NFL, 9.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Kansas City Chiefs -8.5
2pts 10-11 bet365

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Match preview

When these teams squared off in Kansas City in Week Ten, the Chiefs were favoured by 9.5 points and covered that mark with relative ease in a 27-17 victory.

A lot has changed since then. The Jacksonville Jaguars responded by winning seven of their next eight matches, including overcoming a 27-point deficit in a miraculous 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in last week’s Wild Card round.

That win for the Jags, their sixth on the bounce, might prove the high point of the year for this young team though, and although they were let off the hook by the Chargers and the Tennessee Titans the week before, an experienced Chiefs side are unlikely to do them any such favours.

Kansas City know what it takes to progress through the playoffs having reached the AFC Championship game in each of the last four seasons and the Super Bowl favourites, fresh from a bye week, have all the tools needed to go back to the conference decider.

The Chiefs also won seven of their next eight games after facing Jacksonville but were 3-5 against the spread during that span, extending a trend that’s seen them struggle to cover big numbers at home since Patrick Mahomes became the quarterback.

The Chiefs failed to cover in five of their eight home matches this season, but as the year progressed, the Chiefs offence hit another gear and in matches against struggling defences such as the Rams, Seahawks and Raiders, not only did they cover, but they covered spreads ranging from 8.5 to 15.5 points.

The development of the running game elevated Kansas City’s offence to another level and they finished the regular season averaging 29.2 points per game, more than anyone else

The Jaguars are a great story, proving a fine example of how quickly a franchise can change their fortunes with the right people in charge, but it would be foolish to think they are ready to challenge a member of the NFL’s elite on the road in a playoff environment.