Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: prediction, odds, free NFL picks

Free American football picks, best bets and analysis for Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots in Week 16 of the NFL.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Action, 9.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Buffalo +7
1pt 20-23 Coral, Ladbrokes
Back this tip with Coral

Match preview

Buffalo have been one of the surprise stories of the season with opponents finding it difficult to break through their rigid defence, and they could claim another big scalp when they take on AFC East rivals New England.

The Bills edged Pittsburgh 17-10 last Sunday to improve their record to 10-4 and make it four wins from their last five games, with their sole defeat in that period coming against highflying Baltimore. Even on that occasion, they lost by a respectable seven points.

Only once this season have they been beaten by more than one score, and they should stay within a touchdown of the Patriots, who beat them by six points earlier this season.

While New England have an 11-3 record they have been far from convincing in recent weeks, losing to Houston and Kansas City before having a much tougher game than expected against struggling Cincinnati than the 34-13 final scoreline suggests.

Their offence has been stalling with quarterback Tom Brady failing to hit 200 passing yards in three of their last four games, and given Buffalo have conceded just 13 passing touchdowns, expect this one to be a close, low-scoring game.

For more American sports analysis and tips, visit www.pickswise.com

The lowdown

Venue Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Surface Artificial
Weather -1C, cloudy
Vegas handicap Buffalo +6.5
Vegas points line 36.5

Injury report

Buffalo
Offensive tackle Ty Nsekhe (ankle) is out and defensive tackle Corey Liuget (knee) is rated questionable.

New England
Cornerback Jonathan Jones (groin) is out. Linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley (knee) and Jamie Collins (shoulder), wide receiver Julian Edelman (shoulder) and cornerback Jason McCourty (groin) are rated questionable.

Key stat

Buffalo have conceded more than 21 points only twice this season.

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