Italian Grand Prix predictions and F1 betting tips: Ocon offers value

Free F1 betting tips, best bets and analysis for the Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix at Monza.

Where to watch

Practice one & two Sky Sports F1, 1pm & 4pm Friday
Practice three & qualifying Sky Sports F1, midday & 3pm Saturday
Race Sky Sports F1, 2pm Sunday

Best bet

Esteban Ocon top-six finish
1pt 5-2 Betfair, Paddy Power

Italian Grand Prix preview

Max Verstappen is odds-on to make a seamless switch from hero to villain at Monza this weekend as the Red Bull driver chases a fifth successive victory.

The Red Bull racer was roared on by an orange army of supporters at Zandvoort last time out as he won the Dutch Grand Prix but can expect a different reception from the Tifosi, who will be out in force at Monza and praying for a Ferrari win.

Their prayers are unlikely to be heard though, as Verstappen has been drowning out the rest of the grid, winning ten out of 15 races to move 109 points clear in the drivers’ standings, and he’s expected to end a run of surprise winners at the Italian Grand Prix.

Pierre Gasly and Daniel Ricciardo are the last two drivers to stand atop the podium at Monza but it would be an even bigger shock if Verstappen fails to justify his short-priced status, barring incident.

Red Bull were untouchable in Belgium a fortnight ago on a low-downforce, high-speed circuit similar to this week’s venue where Mercedes and Ferrari had no answers.

Ferrari are ready to throw caution to the wind for their home race by upping their power output, despite the increased risk of mechanical failure, but that may not be enough to reel in the Red Bulls.

Red Bull’s dominance casts a heavy shadow over the majority of markets and the punting waters have been muddied further by rumours of several teams taking engine-related grid penalties. Mercedes confirmed Lewis Hamilton’s power unit change on Thursday and he could be the first of many to take grid demotion.

One team not in that conversation are Alpine, who have been the model of consistency of late with both drivers scoring points in the last five races.

Alpine should have a significant edge over their midfield rivals at this track and layers make Fernando Alonso an odds-on chance for the top six at Monza.

However, the prices for Alonso's team mate Esteban Ocon achieving the same feat are far more generous and the French driver is a value play to snare a third top-six finish in six Italian Grand Prix starts.

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