Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix predictions, free F1 betting tips

Free Formula 1 tips, best bets and analysis for the F1 Monaco Grand Prix

Where to watch

Sky Sports F1, 2pm, Sunday

Best bet

Winning margin under four seconds
1pt 11-10 general

Preview

Charles Leclerc is set to start from pole position at his home Monaco Grand Prix despite crashing at the end of qualifying.

Leclerc hit the barriers hard at the end of Saturday's session, but had already set a lap time fast enough to earn the prime grid slot on the street circuit where overtaking is harder than at any other track.

There was some concern that the impact may have damaged Leclerc's gearbox - changing it before the race would incur a five-place grid penalty - but Ferrari's initial examination of the unit Saturday night did not reveal any serious issues.

Leclerc's pole position was a shock in the context of 2021 form overall - Ferrari have failed to record a podium finish in the first four races of the season which has been dominated by Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen.

But Thursday's practices in Monaco suggested the low-speed corners suited the Ferrari well, and Saturday's running showed their pace was genuine.

Leclerc's teammate Carlos Sainz lines up fourth, and was one of several drivers who looked set to improve their best laps when Leclerc's smash brought a premature end to the session.

Hamilton, who leads the championship by 14 points, will start down in seventh after failing to find a decent car setup, but his teammate Valtteri Bottas qualified third.

The Finn will be keen to take the opportunity to impress with his Mercedes contract up at the end of the season.

Verstappen was another driver extremely annoyed at the curtailment of qualifying, but the Red Bull driver is on the front row and in a good position to eat into Hamilton's championship lead.

There's not much to choose between the leading pack, and with Leclerc still not 100 per cent certain not to play safe and opt for a new gearbox, the best bet could be to go for the race being won by a margin of under four seconds.

The difficulty of overtaking at the track means drivers happy with their position can opt to continue running on worn tyres, safe in the knowledge that if they don't make a mistake even a much quicker car is unlikely to pass them.

Meanwhile, the proximity of barriers means multiple safety car appearances are not uncommon in the principality, which has the effect of closing up the pack.

A sub-four second winning margin has been recorded in two of the last three years in Monaco, and there is even more reason to expect a close finish this season.

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