F1 Italian Grand Prix predictions: Lando Norris could hold on for podium place

Free Formula 1 tips, best bets and analysis for the F1 Italian Grand Prix at Monza on Sunday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports F1, 2pm Sunday

Best bet

Lando Norris podium finish
1pt 12-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Preview

Charles Leclerc sent the Tifosi wild by putting his Ferrari on pole position for today’s Italian Grand Prix at Monza, but bookmakers still rate championship leader Max Verstappen the most likely winner.

Leclerc did not have to go fastest in qualifying to line up at the front of the grid, given the penalties hanging over his only credible threats.

Verstappen had a five-place grid penalty to take, his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez ten places, while Leclerc’s fellow Ferrari pilot Carlos Sainz starts from the back along with Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton.

But it was an impressive performance from Leclerc, who admitted he threw caution to the wind having been outpaced by Sainz on his first run in Q3.

Verstappen starts seventh after his penalty and his car is set up to focus on tyre longevity rather than blasting through the pack as he did in Belgium where he started 13th.

As impressive as Leclerc was in qualifying, 53 laps of Monza will be a stern test for the sometimes fragile Ferrari engine. That, along with the team’s growing list of strategic and operational blunders makes the 6-5 about the Monegasque winning the race look a bit skinny.

Despite scoring a 1-2 finish at Monza last year, McLaren were not expecting the track to suit this year’s car.

But while Lando Norris owes his third place in the grid largely to penalties, the young Brit could be value to hang on to that podium place.

Norris was fourth fastest in second practice and sixth in the third session, while the underperforming Daniel Ricciardo also made it into Q3 in the sister car.

Norris is the only driver from a team other than Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes to stand on the podium this year, as he finished third at Imola.

While Verstappen starting right behind him is an obvious concern, Norris was only a whisker behind George Russell, who could be vulnerable due to Mercedes’ lack of straight-line pace.

After a long time on the fringes of F1, 27-year-old Nyck de Vries makes his grand prix debut for Williams in place of Alex Albon, who came down with appendicitis.

De Vries, the Mercedes reserve driver, had driven for Aston Martin in first practice, and will line up eighth.

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