Abu Dhabi Grand Prix betting tips and F1 predictions: Hamilton to win the battle

Free Formula 1 tips, best bets and analysis for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina.

Where to watch

Sky Sports F1, 1pm Sunday

Best bets

Lewis Hamilton to win the Drivers Championship
1pt 10-11 Betfair, Paddy Power

Esteban Ocon to finish in the top six
1pt 4-1 bet365

Race preview

For just the second time in Formula 1 history the two contenders for the World Drivers Championship head into the finale level on points for a winner-takes-all showdown in the Middle East, and it’s not just points that Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton are tied on.

Some bookmakers have both drivers at priced 10-11 to take the crown and the value could lie with seven-time champion Hamilton at Yas Marina.

Hamilton was clear favourite heading into the weekend and retained that status after going six-tenths faster than Verstappen in practice two, but the tide shifted in qualifying.

Verstappen put in an incredible lap to take pole position and given each of the last six Abu Dhabi GPs has been won from pole, he would surely have been firm favourite were it not for a blunder in Q2.

The Dutchman will start the race on soft tyres after locking up in Q2, flat-spotting his medium tyres and effectively forcing Red Bull into a two-stop strategy.

Track position is crucial at Yas Marina, but no driver has won on a two-stop strategy since Hamilton in 2016 and even that wasn’t straightforward, as second-place Nico Rosberg needed just to hold his position behind his teammate to wrap up the drivers title.

In his post-qualifying interview Hamilton quipped: “At least if Max is in front I can see where he is,” and that remark does raise an interesting point.

The teams’ differing strategies mean that Hamilton may not have to pass Verstappen on track to win, minimising the risk of yet more controversial driving from the hyper-aggressive Verstappen after a bad-tempered Saudi Arabia Grand Prix last weekend. Instead, this title could be decided on the pitwall and Verstappen’s expected two-stop strategy looks a less preferable option than the one-stop plan Hamilton’s team will be aiming for.

Barring any red flags or ill-timed safety cars, a record eighth title is there for the taking for Hamilton.

While the vast majority of the focus will be at the front of the pack, it is worth looking a little further back to find value in Esteban Ocon to finish in the top six.

Alpine have been impressive since Brazil and Ocon, who qualified ninth on Saturday, has made it into the top six from that very same position in each of the last two races. He was within touching distance of a podium in Saudi Arabia only to be denied by Valtteri Bottas in a straight sprint for the line and another impressive drive could be on the cards after he went second-fastest in practice two.

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