Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

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Cheltenham +4 Asian handicap corners
1pt Evs bet365

Sheffield Wednesday v Cheltenham sounds like a game in which the play should be one-sided.

Wednesday are a big club, former champions of England and winners of the FA Cup and League Cup. They have fallen on hard times but better ones could lie ahead. They are challenging for promotion from League One. Cheltenham are a much smaller club who deserve credit for being in League One.

The result-related markets for Hillsborough, which I think are about right, imply a 67 per cent chance of a home win, a 20 per cent chance of a draw and a 13 per cent chance of an away win.

It is debatable, though, whether we should anticipate Wednesday dominating the corners count as comprehensively as bet365 are anticipating them doing so.

Back Cheltenham +4 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 2.0, equivalent to the fractional price of evens. If Cheltenham lose the corners count by five or more the bet will fail, if they lose it by four stakes will be refunded and if anything else happens the bet will succeed.

In other League One games with similar result expectations the Asian handicap corners line would normally be lower than four. Should it be higher than normal today? Yes. Should it be as high as four? Perhaps not.

Wednesday have taken more than three-quarters of the corners in their League One home games. Cheltenham have taken fewer than a quarter of the corners in their League One away games.

Those are extreme percentages, even though they cover only five and six games. If they – or anything like them – are reproduced today the bet will almost certainly lose. But they might not be.

Wednesday have taken an exceptionally high proportion of the corners in their home games, even for a team who have had a lot of the play and recorded good results. Cheltenham have recorded an exceptionally low proportion of the corners in their away games – and their results have not been awful.

More likely than not, over the rest of the season Wednesday will have a lower share of the corners in their home games and Cheltenham will have a higher share of the corners in their away games. We cannot be sure this will happen, or when it will start, but it is possible that decimal odds of 2.0 are too big today for Cheltenham +4 Asian handicap corners away to Wednesday.

Thought for the week

What has gone wrong for Liverpool in the Premier League? They are 11 points behind leaders Arsenal, who they play on Sunday. Perhaps more significantly, they are ten points behind second-placed Manchester City, who they play a week tomorrow. On both opponents they have a game in hand.

In Premier League fixtures Liverpool have averaged 19 shots for and eight against, exactly the same as last season when they were only just pipped to the title by City.

Liverpool have taken seven shots for every goal they have scored, the same ratio as over the previous four seasons, in which they were usually challenging, and once finished above, City.

So Liverpool have been creating as many chances and converting them as regularly as before – though with one potentially important caveat: half of the shots that have gone in came in one game, when they put nine past Bournemouth.

Where there has been a difference is in defence. Liverpool have not faced shots more frequently than in recent seasons, but a higher proportion of them have gone in. There is some evidence that the shots they have faced were from more dangerous positions. Liverpool have faced seven shots for every goal they have conceded. Over the previous four seasons the ratio was ten shots for every goal conceded.

Will Liverpool’s defensive stats improve again? No one can be sure. I think it is more likely than not.

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