Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Under 6 Asian total cards in Spezia v Bologna 2pm Sunday
1pt 1.75 bet365

It is possible that bet365 have underestimated the chance of a low number of cards in Sunday's Serie A game between Spezia and Bologna.

Back under 6 Asian total cards at decimal odds of 1.75, equivalent to fractional odds of 3-4. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If the total is lower than six the bet will win, if the total is six stakes will be returned and if the total is higher than six the bet will lose.

Referee Antonio Giua is a relative newcomer to Serie A. Sunday's game will be his first this season. He refereed 31 games across the previous five seasons.

There were some high makeups in the last three seasons – two of ten cards, two of nine, two of eight and two of seven. And his average makeup was higher than a typical colleague’s. Even so, he still presided over almost twice as many games with a makeup below six compared with makeups over six.

Giua is hard to read confidently, but it seems possible that in future he will be associated with high makeups less often than bet365 anticipate.

Bologna’s first two games this season had cards makeups of 11 and eight. But in the next two the makeups were four. Over the previous two seasons Bologna were not involved in games with high makeups uncommonly often – though they were in the preceding couple of seasons.

Coach Sinisa Mihajlovic was a good but uncompromising player. His teams have sometimes provoked a lot of high makeups but not always.

So there are areas for concern, as there always are, in addition to which something random and crazy could spark off, but it does seem conceivable that the odds about under 6 Asian handicap cards should be shorter than 1.75.

Thought for the week

Last Saturday Bournemouth lost 9-0 to Liverpool. Last Sunday Dundee United lost 9-0 to Celtic. On Tuesday Bournemouth sacked manager Scott Parker and Dundee United sacked manager Jack Ross.

The consequences were neither unusual nor unexpected. Managers often lose their job after a heavy defeat. Sometimes, for the owners, it was the straw that broke the camel’s back – a worse result than some bad preceding results.

Nearly always, though, the heavy defeat itself was a fluke. It was a game in which one team played well by their standards and the other team played badly by their standards, in addition to which almost everything went right for the first team and wrong for the second team.

It was not the losing manager’s fault. What could he have done differently? Perhaps the players had an off day, but they did not mean to and no one saw it coming. Did anyone predict an enormous scoreline?

Liverpool scored nine goals with 19 shots – roughly one goal for every two shots. Typically they take seven or eight shots to score a goal. Celtic scored nine goals with 30 shots – approximately one goal for every three shots. Typically they also take seven or eight shots to score a goal.

Maybe Bournemouth owner Maxim Demin was annoyed by Parker’s post-match interview, in which he seemed to criticise the club’s transfer policy. How would you have felt if you had been humiliated in public and a microphone was thrust in your face? What would anyone have said?

Bournemouth had lost three games in a row without scoring, but those were against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City.

Will Bournemouth's next manager be better than Parker? Will Dundee United’s be better than Ross? Southampton lost 9-0 three seasons ago and two seasons ago, yet their manager is still Ralph Hasenhuttl and they are doing fine.

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