Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Where to watch

Viaplay Sports 2 & LaLigaTV, 3.15pm Saturday

Best bet

Villarreal -1 Asian handicap corners
1pt Evs bet365

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It is possible that bet365 have underestimated the chance of Villarreal winning the corner count by more than one in their derby at home to Valencia in La Liga.

Back Villarreal –1 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 2.0, equivalent to the fractional price of evens. If Villarreal win the corners count by two or more the bet will succeed, if they win by one stakes will be returned, and if anything else happens the bet will fail.

Villarreal will be playing their fourth game under Quique Setien, who was once briefly coach up the coast at Barcelona. At Villarreal, Setien replaced Unai Emery, who left to manage Aston Villa.

Before this round of fixtures began, Villarreal were one place and two points above Valencia. Villarreal were ninth with 21 points, Valencia tenth win 19 points. Villarreal, I believe, are slightly better than Valencia. On that point long-term markets seem to agree with me.

Today Villarreal are playing at home, which should give them an advantage, although not quite as much as usual because this is a derby.

Odds in the result-related markets imply a 49 per cent chance of a Villarreal win, a 28 per cent chance of a draw and a 23 per cent chance of a Valencia win.

Usually, in La Liga games with similar result expectations, fair decimal odds about the home team –1 Asian handicap corners would be a bit shorter than 2.0. Should they be today? Possibly so.

Valencia, coached since the start of this season by Gennaro Gattuso, have perhaps over-achieved in corners handicap markets, but much more often at home than away. Having said that, they won the corners count 11-1 in their last away game, at Real Sociedad. Villarreal have perhaps over-performed in corners counts in home games.

Overall Villarreal do not have a good record in corners handicaps in this fixture, but it has been better in the most recent meetings – they won the corner count by two or more in four of the previous seven seasons. As always, any outcome is possible, but the chance of Villarreal –1 Asian handicap corners may be better than the odds imply.

Thought for the week

Wolves v Manchester United could be a good start to the last day of another year in the Premier League. It has been entertaining more than once in recent years. There was a time when it was a game between the best two teams in England.

There were four seasons in the late 1950s when United were champions twice and Wolves were champions twice. The last of those was 1958-59 when Wolves came first and United second.

United enjoyed some even better times afterwards, Wolves went through a lot worse times. Neither are challenging for the title now but both are playing in the competition that decides the title.

Season 1958-59 was the last one completed before I was born. It was a long time ago. What has changed in football over more than six decades? By one measurement, surprisingly little.

More than half of the teams who were in the top division in 1958-59 are in the top division again in 2022-23. The same can be said for the top divisions in Spain, Italy and France. There was no national league in Germany until 1963-64, but almost half its founder members are among the current members.

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